Wednesday, April 8, 2020

10 on Death Watch...and counting

The loss of human life is tragic. When out of the ordinary, its pain seems more acute. The coronavirus is causing more than loss of life. It will be the nail in the coffin for many aspects in our society. Not only did it change March Madness into the "Silent Spring," but the effects of the disease has effected all our sport leagues and activities. It has disrupted houses of worship. It puts all interactions under a new glass of stress and worry. It could get worse. What if mail is stopped? What if hospitals close due to dangers of their air quality and safety? What if truckers stop delivering which forces grocery stores to close? The possible ramifications are endless and terrifying. Enough said.

4.4%

is the figure that the labor department says where our unemployment jumped too. This is totally wrong. It is totally short of the truth. We know and I know from past experience. Back in 2008 I got laid off from work. I didn't even know where the unemployment office was located in Florida. I found out that claims can be done by phone. Problem was you never got through to file your claim. Eventually, I filed a claim through the internet. I lost three weeks of payments, and by the way, even when the claim is complete, there is a waiting period.
Today, it is worse because most states have cut back on services like the unemployment office. Many, like in Florida, have also cut back on the length of receiving payments. This was done by the anti-union, anti-worker, Governor Scott. Sadly, this poor excuse for a human is now their state senator.
In addition, all unemployment claims are only done now-a-days through the internet. Millions of Americans use their public library for internet connections. Even if some of these people get through to begin their claim, time allotments cut short their application procedure. These poor souls are in limbo. These people as well as many others have no way to register their claim in a timely manner. There are countless jobs that are described as self-employment. They are not being counted. What about poor waitresses? They only make $2.13 per hour. What kind of unemployment check will that amount too? Un-documented immigrants will not be able to get a tax relief check. How will they exist? The real percentage of the unemployed is triple what the government reports. The questions are endless, the ramifications are terrifying. Enough said.

Where this is going...

We all should know by now that retail in America has been suffering since the emergence of the PC. Our national government has allowed commerce on the internet to be free of a sales tax. This is the heart of the problem for brick and mortar locations. E-commerce has a built-in sales advantage from 6% or more over shopping centers and malls. This is why retail is dying a slow razor blade death...until now. The CORVID-19 is the death poison. The end is close for the ten businesses that are in this piece. The sad truth is almost all retail will be forced to close stores and consolidate to limit debt. The ones that I have assembled are on their last breath. Sadly, I must inform you in conjunction with our unemployment picture that retail accounts for 52 million jobs. The virus has caused anchor mall giants, Macy's, Nordstrom, Apple and Nike to close all their stores. This will kill more malls. Simon Properties, the biggest mall landlord is closing 200 of its shopping centers. Every week new news is more bad news and more of the same. You could pray that on Sunday, we not only remember His rising from the dead, but with Him, all is possible. Maybe He will eradicate the virus from our air. Thank you, Father.

10 on Death Watch

1) J. C. Penny:  too much debt, closing stores which means less revenue for debt service.
2) Ascenta: parent of Ann Taylor. Already closed Dressbarn before virus, predict more losses &-Rev.
3) Stage:   was looking good with acquisition of Gordmans, now too much debt and no revenues.
4) Express:based in malls, stores closed due to virus. No revenues, was already losing to e-commerce.
5) Francesca's: closed all locations, no revenues and out of cash.
6) Stein Mart: was already selling assets before virus. Now, it is offering itself and no takers!
7) Container Store: $14 million in cash. $64 million in assets. $300 million in debt. Do the math!
8) GNC: already lost in battle with-commerce. $859 million in debt which it cannot service.
9) J. Jill: women's apparel - closed all stores. No revenues, but still owes rent, utilities and debt.
10)Tailored Brands: A.K.A. Men's Wearhouse. Closed stores, but it is still willing to pay employees.
                                Beautiful gesture, but it will not last as liabilities is in excess of credits.

The above is part of the on-going crisis which is retail in America. I remind you that no expert correctly predicted the unemployment rate, not even Sabastian. However, Sebastian was correct in calling out Amazon for their phony hiring ad. It was learned last week that Amazon fired employees who sought to unionize the warehouse jobs or anyone who complained about health safety aspects. The collapse of retail in America has many ramifications with endless and terrifying possibilities. Enough said!