Thursday, February 5, 2015

Super Bowl, Chicken Wings and Inflation

Some people say that the economy will soften because the Patriots won the Super Bowl. They claim  the big game has developed an indicator with 81% accuracy. They claim that if an original NFC team wins the game, the economy expands. However, if an AFC team wins the game, the economy weakens. I use to follow this crazy line until I realized that like everything else, it is massaged and manipulated. Just look at the two teams who played. Seattle was a expansion AFC team that was moved to the NFC. The city of Boston has teams come and go over the years. Some in the original NFL and some in the original AFL. Pittsburgh is another example. It is an original NFL team, but they were moved to the AFC. There are other cases with the Cardinals, Rams and Colts. In reality, the NFL is a reflection of our society. You got good guys like Thomas Davis and bad guys with long sheets at the police station. Then, you got the manipulators. These are the guys who buffed up the stat lines by curtailing defenses. How does this relate to the cost of wings and the concept of inflation? Glad, you asked.
Bureau of Labor Statistics released their "official" inflation figures. They fell in November to .03%, and again, in December to .04%. "No inflation!" they say. Well, how come the cost of chicken is up 8.3% just this MONTH? And dear reader, wings are up even higher.
People, it is not only wings. I saw an ad from Publix Supermarket. It had rib-eye steak on sale at $11.99 per pound. Are you kidding me? No wonder I can't remember the last time that I had a steak. Keep this in mind, this was the sale price. It actually costs more! It's like going to a Cadillac showroom. Why waste your time when you know you can't afford one. Prices at the supermarket give you the idea to lose weight by not all.
*eggs up 23%
*dairy up 17%
*meat up 22%
*bread up 16%
* my favorite, the elixir of life, coffee up 14%
Now, you may argue that coffee is not essential, but it is the little pleasure that I crave in the morning and it is the second largest import after oil into the US. And don't forget sugar, not that fake stuff. It is up in price, too. Then, of course, the coffee makers kept the price similar with their "old" standby trick. It is their Houdini act. Same container that use to have a pound, and then, 12 ounces and now, 9.3 ounces. Get out of town!
Big Mac
index is used by many analysts'. The only problem that I have with it is the conclusion. They study the price of the burger throughout the world and use the information to say whether a currency is over or underpriced. I remember when it cost just one dollar and now, it is four times that amount. That, folks, is inflation. I guess those same analysts don't want a mark on their resume, because they want a government agency job and saying there is inflation is a no-no.
Jim Clifton
is the CEO of the polling company, Gallup. He called out the government, Wall St. and the media for lying about unemployment. I like this guy, but I think he chose the wrong word. He should've said, deceived. He should post the old Abbot and Costello routine on unemployment. They said it best. I even read a piece by the next agency hopeful who stated that the low ratio of people to the workforce at 62.3% does not have any value to the economy as a whole. Maybe I'm wrong. This guy could run for president in the Republican Party. Then again, I'm sure there is a Democrat out there with ways to show lower inflation because whatever the figure, it is tied to social security benefits under COLA(cost of living). If inflation was calculated correctly, social security checks would rise. Can't let that happen and of course, the US federal deficit would fall off the charts. The low inflation numbers allows the Fed to use the same deception to keep rates low. This is the central theme in my unpublished book, all things are related. So, let's get real and show the real world.
Big Day
you go to a family or friends gathering. You're happy because at the gas station prices are down a lot. You remember one dollar a gallon gas. You remember four dollars a gallon gas. Now, you are saving $700 a year on gas, if it lasts. You don't want to think about the rumor for tax increases to cover roads, bridges and budgets. You grab some chips, beer and soda to bring to the party. They all cost more, but hey, I saved on gas. People at the party mention the bowl indicator. You think about it on the drive home. If things go south, will my job also fly south as in offshore? Hey, the Pats won and I saved on gas. You put on a radio station to hear the post game hype.
Everyone from the government, the IMF, World Bank, Wall St. to the media state that our economy will grow by 3 to 4% every year, but in reality, this is the 9th straight year will less than 3% growth. Deceive, not lying is the correct word.
Who is the biggest deceiver of all? Got to give it to the BLS. Why? Because they have the audacity not to include food and energy in their inflation report. Those are the two things that you need and use everyday.