Political Misdirection

- City girls just seem to find out early. How to open doors with just a smile. A rich old man and she           won't have to worry. She'll dress up all in lace and go in style.

- Eagles (Lyin' Eyes)

As Old As Time

Did not the Lord mention that sinners know how to give presents to their children? Do they not know our culture? Do they not see our movies, hear our songs and watch our television? 

Our politicians are among the modern sinners. They have intelligent people who they hire to smooth out their language. Presidents employ them to get laws passed that they know have corrupt favoritism. Did Biden's, Inflation Reduction Act stop or add to inflation. We all know it didn't stop inflation and the debt added to our pain. Now, we get the "Big Beautiful Bill." It is 940 pages...and probably will grow. With the little release of points on it, we have gleamed this budget is an Oreo cookie. The first word is honest. It is big. The second is misdirection. It uses a lovely word like a smile. It hides the lies within. The last word is a euphemism. The word bill can mean a law and it can also mean a charge. Dear Reader, we are getting charged to the tune of another $4 trillion to our national debt. 

The one good feature of the budget is our government receives $808 billion from tariffs. President Trump gives this needed revenue to the rich in tax cuts. His fellow, lying Repiblicans say the tax cuts add zero to the end game. Why, you ask? Because they say the tax cuts that are already on the books will just be extended. Well, those original tax cuts pushed our national debt of $20 trillion in 2016, to our present $37 trillion and will explode, as this budget as written shows a $3+trillion shortfall. Keep in mind, that our national deficit is so bad that we are already on the books to record one trillion just in interest payments on a yearly basis.

Now, we read this cronyism. Remember too big too fail? Well, the big banks have been after the Fed to lower the rule to have extra capital in these large institutions. They got two villains to help. Michelle Bowman and Powell have ended eSLR. 

Trump's budget will send the dollar into a crisis. The Chinese, Russians and BRICS will be giddy. The One World crowd will be foaming at the mouth. The IMF will push their Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket of currencies plan. Whatever happens, King Dollar will die. It will severely damage the American deam. Everyday citizens will feel not only inflation, but economic pain. We love the Eagles. The chorus pertains to our corrupt government leaders. "...your smile is a thin disguise...There ain't no way to hide your lyin' eyes..."

Consider this...

...a billion seconds is 31 years. We lose more than a $billion a day. A trillion seconds is 31,688 years. Now, you can grasp the importance of having a balanced budget. 

We wonder how the trial of Netanyahu is going? How about Brazil's, Bolsonaro? It seems that all the recent presidents of that nation is accused of corruption of one type or another? In any event, what these politicians say after the trial will be a lie. 

Meanwhile,

the market hit new record highs in the S&P 500 ($SPX) and Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ). However, this does not mean a rally. According to Dow Theory, the industrials and transports also must hit new highs. The two are a long way off. Fibonacci Retracement levels offer a clearer picture. When a price moves up above 38.2%, it implies the upside can go higher. When the market shows a high in price level, Fibonacci can identify support levels. The same is true in reverse...Peace.

Odds and Ends: June 2025

- ...You can leave here for three days in space, but when you return its the same old place, fighting and          destruction all over the place...

- Barry McGuire, Eve of Destruction

G-7 Summit and Fed

Trump may have left the meeting in Canada due to the warmonger, Netanyahu, but Ursula von der Leyen opened up on China. The EU leader called out China for lies in trading. We say, "Yay!" Then, the Chinese hackers hit Canada. She should have noted that too. 

We stated that the Fed would not change interest rates. We pat ourselves on the back. Fed chair, Powell did say that he sees some price increases with inflation to 3%. He adds, "We do not see more increases during the summer." Lastly, he warned about possible stagflation. Dear Reader, the US has been in stagflation since the end of 2022. We labeled it, "Stealth inflation." One reason is no one else recognizes it. We noted it in many sectors like insurance, food, utilities and apparel. We also add this point. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) does not include insurance costs. Nothing like manipulation to make things appear better. 

There is also a new concern regarding housing and insurance. Have you ever heard of  subsidence? It is the sinking of land. When you see cracks on the outside walls of your home, this is subsidence. With flooding and other climate problems, 1.2 billion people could be effected with damages at estimaes of $8 trillion. Ouch!

I wonder what the Communist Party in China says about its poor real estate report of only 5 million new homes in a nation of over one billion?   ...Anyway, ...

We also stated that the May unemployment report at 4.2% would be the last time for that low reading. We saw in the past two weeks two high-teck layoffs. First, it was Microsoft and now, Amazon. AI and robotics are being hired. Maybe the crooks that tabulate the stats could add a new feature to the unemployment index, AI and robotic hiring?  

Speaking of high-teck...

Meta is buying a defunk nuclear power plant. They plan to upgrade and use it for power in data centers for its AI program. This worries us a lot. Meta cannot even regulate its platform with protections and we are allowing them to run a nuclear reactor?

All the Talk...

is on Tesla with a test market of self-driving taxi's. Then, we read where New York will build a nuclear power plant and Japan will launch flying taxi's. We worry about the talk by Putin that all Ukraine is his. Where China has constantly surrounded Taiwan like a prize fighter sizing up his opponent. Where Netanyahu uses Trump like a pupit on a string.

Where talk ends. Where we do like "Pearl Harbor" and attack Iran without notice. 

Good News

Subsea cables have been a great addition for Brazil. It gives solid fiber internet. The firm is extending to include Argentina. This connects our world. 

Meanwhile,

The market is in consolidation. The bulls want to raise prices, but there is always some unsettling news like Iran/Israel conflict last week and our entry this week. We note this reliable indicator. When the market indexes cannot top the January high, it indicates a bearish trend. Conversely, if the low's are not taken out, this is bullish. By the way, we have not taken out the January high. Ironically, the oil price dropped to its first resistance level. The bulls say that this shows a pause is coming with Iran. We relate it to the calm like in the eye of a hurricane. Be patient...Peace. 

Mid-Year 2025

- ...Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose and sometimes you get the blues...

- Journey 

What Morgan Stanley Sees...

In their mid-term report at the beginning of June, the investment firm looked at six points of interest. They saw weakness in global growth, but no US recession. They see inflation slowing with a possible rise in the 3rd quarter and then, falling. They hedged by saying a possible rate cut by the Fed. Speaking of which, the Fed meets today. We see no rate cut. Trump will explode. Continuing, they hedged again by saying that governments might push stimulist packages. The US dollar will continue to weaken. We agree. Oil will continue to fall with excessive supply. We see consolidation.

They see money flowing into AI, data centers and defense. They mentioned the stability in bonds. No argument on any of these.

We Take Exception

Granted these reports are general in nature as they address an audience of different levels of knowledge, but they offer poor explanations for important points like the dollar and oil. They were correct on the flow of investment money, but they did not mention the dangers like we see happening in the Middle East. The conflict spiked oil. It could go higher as 30% of oil tankers pass along the waters adjacent to Iran. What about Ukraine? To say money will enter defense, but no connection to the stock market? What about the Trump tax cuts to the value of the dollar? This will be the biggest issue going forward. A lower dollar makes inflation rise. The Fed buying treasuries so the federal government keeps its reckless spending is status quo. This is the root cause for inflation. It is one reason why we say, "End the Fed!"

Unemployment

The May report stated it was 4.2%. We see it rising. The on again, off again tariffs will begin to appear in June and by the end of August, unemployment will be the sounding board of the Democrats even though Trump is attempting to do the right thing. As for the economy, Journey has you covered. Costo and Dollar General are winning. The Gap and ANF are losing. Monro tire chain and Marelli auto parts got the blues. We worry about M-2 money supply. There was a $1 trillion drop between April 2022 and October 2023. The percentage was twice as great as the dip in the Great Depression of 1929. This type of effect takes a couple of years to be an impact. 

Very Sad

Boeing had another disaster as well as Netanyahu. Neither has creditability. So, we cannot believe whatever they say. 

Looking Ahead

Trump can replace Powell at the Fed as his term expires next year. He might test the waters about running for a third term. Keep an eye on the trails on Netanyhu in Israel and ex-president Bolsonaro in Brazil. Politics hides the truth.  Peace.

Discord

- One man's ceiling is another man's floor.

- Paul Simon

Conflict...

...it is essential in any good story. However, in life, a schedule of smooth sailing is ideal. The problem here is fiction, although it can resemble life, it is not life. When we have conflict, disputes and arguments in our life, it can lead to other, more serious problems like divorce, being fired and war. If, after any of these developments, we ask ourselves why and what did it accomplice? We realize, nothing. 

China

It is only their ego that wants Taiwan. So, they risk death and destruction for millions, not to mention the possibility of world war to satisfy ego? The risk could tip our climate beyond help. Xi should just seek to improve life for the Chinese people like Deng Xiaoping. By the way, cut the hacking, stealing and lying. Allow freedom of thought or the world will isolate you again like after WWll. 

Note: Chinese hackers erupted again, even while trade talks were taking place. We believe the best course of action is to end all relations with China. Of course, no one has the balls to do the right thing.

Russia

Hey, Putin. You only have a few years left in your life. What have you done for the Russian people? Your nation is hated by almost everyone due to your leadership? Did stealing Crimea do anything to improve life for your citizens? End your ego conflict. Seek a peace that fosters trade with the West or did you forget all the help that America gave you to keep your nation free of the Nazi's? Give your ear to what your people say and want and then, maybe, someone will mourn your death. We all have an expiration date.

US - Richest Man vs. Most Powerful

President Trump let's his ego decide his thinking. Musk is correct. Your decision for tax cuts is totally wrong. If this bill passes as is, the dollar will face a global crisis. It will be devalued. Inflation will be rampart. The interest on our deficit will crush "American Exceptionalism" for decades. Your tariffs is the right call, but use the money to improve America with infrastructure, electric grid, chips and safety on the internet. You have a chance to be great or be labeled an ego-maniac. Of course, we belive that Musk's ego is also off the charts.

Meanwhile

The battle between the bulls and the bears rages along. The bulls have pushed the SPY to within its all-time high. They are counting on a rate cut from Powell and the Federal Reserve. They gained confidence when Trump publically called out Powell for a full one point cut.  

We do not see this happening. We conclude this from the bond market. The bond market is many, many times larger than the stock market. The yield on the 10-year note rose dramatically last week to 4.5%. You can also see companies preparing for problems. Citi Group cut 3,500 tech workers in China. Proctor and Gamble (PG) annouced that it is dropping 7,000 workers. We suggest that everyone rethink their position or end up asking, why? What did it accomplish?  Peace.

Erosion of the Cornerstone

- My son, walk not thou in the way with them; refrain thy foot from their path. For their feet run to evil,     and make haste to shed blood.

- Proverbs 1: 15-16. 

Hippocratic Code

It laid down an ethical code to practice by physicians from the time the great Greek doctor gave us this cornerstone and foundation: Do no harm. The problem is a time elixir that blends greed. It falls like rain to the structure. It acts like nature's erosion. 

Today

In modern practice, Big Pharma is the force of nature. It is chipping away at the base of medical practice. We all face this dilemna. Can we trust this medicine? Big Pharma suppresses knowledge of natural immunity. With that said, the pharmaceutical industry has proven to be a great benefit to mankind. Its ability to make medicine and vaccines widely available has helped save countless lives. Now the bad part. In its quest to develop the next polio or measles cure, they have taken shortcuts, liberties and out-right fraud to not only stay in business, but to seek the riches of King Midas. 

They sponsor medical school material and conferences. They influence students with their new drugs. They offer phony tests to get approval for questionable medicine. These tests lie to patients to get them to sign a consent form. The study lasts from 14 days to one month. These drugs enter your system. The side effects may take months or years to erode your natural immunity. Then, it can kill your kidney, eyes, stomach, circulation, etc. Do you know where this could lead? Death!

It gets worse. The industry spends the most money for lobbyists ($300 million). These no conscience people, mostly lawyers, use the money to influence Congress. They want protections for the pharma firms against lawsuits, competition and ability to promote their drugs in commercials. Isn't it sad that the US is the only nation to allow these crooks to push their poison on TV. If an alien watched US television, it would think that this is the sickest body in the universe. We get bombarded with drug commercials non-stop. This has caused another problem. The networks depend on this TV revenue. They would alley with Big Pharma to keep a "freedom" of expression even though they know the sins of the industry. 

Dear Reader, no blog can fully give you the true dangerous picture that this industry has evolved into. The opioids is just one aspect. Complete books cannot fully explain the drift from the Hippocratic Code. Just last week, United Health Group (UNH) with a three trillion market cap was found guilty to offering kickbacks to nursing homes. They wanted these firms to enroll their patients into their program. The week before, the CEO stepped aside. He will claim that he did not know about the crime. The company is too big. They probably have other sins like Medicare fraud? It will result in the same BS that senator Rick Scott used when he was CEO of Columbia Hospital Corp (HCA). He resigned under the cloud of fraud to Medicare. All his top people were convicted. Apparantly, blindness in a CEO is a great quality.

How about the vaccines from COVID-19? One of the firms used the actual virus in their formula. A little virus can easily be defeated by our natural immunity, however, too much and our system may fail. Anyway, this firm realized that their small amount of the disease, evaporates quickly. After they received approval for their vaccine, they changed the amount of the virus added to dangerous levels. They did this because they wanted to dominate the vaccine market with little concern for patients. Even hospitals are guilty. They used ventilators to help patients breath. This was dangerous because ventilators put pressure on your thorax. Covid puts pressure on your thorax, but the use of ventilators pads the medical bill. Deaths with use of ventilators was off the charts. Money is the root of all evil. 

Musk has left DOGE, but whomever runs the program should attack Big Pharma. There is more corrupt waste, theft and medical sins than any other industry. The sad truth is doctors lead the way in this poorly investigated field. After the Federal Reserve, this is the second most dangerous cabal facing America and its citizens. I would recommend you to read, Follow the Science by Sharyl Attkisson.

Solution Idea?

As usual, we do not just criticize, we offer ideas. In my unpublished book, The Evolution of Democracy: the Book of Mutiple Predictions and Ideas, we addressed the problem. Our solution is already on the books for felonies. Three Strikes and Your Out translates to life imprisonment for criminals for three felonies. We apply this to drug firms. Small side effects are misdemeanours. A felony is from a death or deaths from their "medicine." If a company has three such failures on their books, the CEO and all of the board are banned for life. They cannot be part of anything with medicine or any medical firm, ever. Of, yeah, this goes for the actual firm too. We also want to ban them from television commercials. ...Peace  

Odds and Ends: May 2025

 - You can spend and live the way you want, but one day you will face a bill.

- Sebastian (Evolution of Democracy)

Many Types of Bills

Prime Minister Netanyahu declared that France, UK and Canada is wrong. He stopped short of including the US even though President Trump agrees with the above three concerning Gaza and the Middle East. He doesn't want to lose all his free weapons and aid. The World Court has already labeled Netanyahu a genocide criminal and we worried that his real intention with the war on Hamas was to grab more land. He showed his colors by stating that his army will occupy all of Gaza. He is an ego maniac. Everybody is wrong except him.

Hats Off...

...Thomas Friedman, the opinion writer for the N.Y. Times. This courageous, Jewish journalist wrote an open letter in his column. He referred to Netanyahu when he said, "Israel is not our alley." He means the way he has conducted the conflict has put us in a terrible position. We agree. His bill is overdo. Israel needs to vote him out of office, for good. 

End of Penny?

It now costs almost a nickel to mint a penny. Trump has ended any new circulation. Speaking of the nickel, it will soon join the penny in economic purgatory. Estimates are over 13-cents to make a nickel. We can put the blame clearly on the Federal Reserve and both of our political parties. Their combined actions of not protecting American workers, debt spending and give-a-ways to the rich is destroying the purchasing power of the dollar that can be seen with inflation and our on-going, rising, disastrous debt. This is not all on President Trump, but he showed his true colors with the phony name, "Big Beautiful Bill." When you offer more tax cuts to the rich that will explode our deficits, yet again, this is irresponsible.

We predict this will lead to an international currency crisis. It will give incentive to those who oppose Trump like the EU. It plays into our enemies hand. Led by China along with the BRICS, they will see their objective as another piece of America is damaged. Together, their solution will be a new reserve currency under the IMF. They will issue a basket currency of the leading nations. Each will get a percentage. The US may be the highest percentage, but our dollar will be devalued to around 89-cents. To put that in perspective, it was $110 in January and closed at 99.11 last Friday. Trump's tax cuts will end up being a tax on everyone. It will create another 15% in inflation. Stop this madness!

Bias Proof

CBS news network has shown the door to its CEO. Why, you ask? Because her political views did not follow her superiors. This shows network bias. It is not just Fox. Influence is rampant in America. Dear Reader, we try to offer you the truth, but with so much confusion, this is difficult.

Love in Action - Netherlands

His life portrayed the concept and the Dutch are living examples of love in action. It is taught within their culture and school system to be grateful for all the US soldiers who died to liberate their country from the Nazi's. Their citizens adopt a grave in the Margraten Cemetery of all US military who died fighting on their soil. Every year on the US Memorial Day, the adoptees visit the grave stone and place a flower on the site. We say, "God bless them."

Meanwhile,

Walgreens has begun closing 1200 stores. UPS is laying off 20,000 workers. As we have shown you in previous pieces, layoffs are happening globally. Japan's Panasonic is shredding 10,000. Sweden's Volvo is cutting 3,000 jobs. That is a big number for a small auto maker. We see the recent rally in the market running out of juice with falling volume. Hope you had a nice, holiday weekend... Peace.

Bonds: In Rubble, In Inflation

- The magic of compounding interest is truly the eighth wonder of the world.

- Albert Einstein

Bonds

This is something that we, at Evolution rarely discuss, investing in bonds. We have mentioned them briefly. The most recent is from Brazil with their environmental idea to back trees. They eat CO2. Their bond is devoted to the preservation of forests. Good idea.

There are many types of bonds: national government, corporate and even local and state issues. Bonds are a conservative investment. Generally, they are safe, but greed as weakened the borders of safety. We have "junk" bonds that pay a great yield, but a mishap can give you nothing or pennies after years of litigation. We got stocks for gambling. You want a safe paying investment that compounds your money. with that said, the landscape is constantly changing. We looked at two that we like.  

One of the other, new ventures is from Fermat Capital Management. The company believes a market for catastrophe bonds (cats) will grow 20% this year with future growth almost ensured. John Seo, managing director is convinced that inflation will be the catalyst. Destruction by nature and the rebuilding will face higher prices for materials, not to mention, insurance. His bond is an aid for insurance firms and investors. He sees $60 billion in need for 2025. His firm also offers an exchange-traded fund based on cat bonds. In addition, the bonds are structured to US Treasury yields. If they rise, so does his cat bonds. His firm has attracted big players in reinsurance. Swiss Re insures bonds. They are working with the firm to offer new, innovative products for growth in this arena. 

I-Bonds

This is what we like because they can explode in yield when inflation appears. They are backed by the US. We also like the ability to track information that effects bonds. The problem with foreign bonds is data is not always accurate. Here, in the US, we can receive and verify info. Now, I-Bonds do not pay a high interest rate, especially when inflation is low, but people do not understand one important aspect. The rate is adjusted twice a year. This acts like a CD or short term bond. So, if inflation picks up, you get rewarded. This can be explosive. When inflation appeared during the Biden administration, the rate jumped to 9.6%. Wow! Yay!  ...Peace.