Wednesday, June 28, 2017

Banking Crisis: How It Happens...and It Will

I don't make amendments, but this is HUGE!
"...another financial crisis not likely in our lifetime."
- Janet Yellen (06/27/2017)
Now, I predict that we will get one and possibly in one year or less.

- And the men who spurred us on
  Sit in judgment of all wrong
  They decide and the shotgun sings the song

 ...Meet the new boss
 ...Same as the old boss

 ...Then, I'll get on my knees and pray
 ...We don't get fooled again.

- The Who

The Who say it more clearly, although Pink Floyd had the beat in Another Brick in the Wall. Where I'm going is the dangerous path that our so-called leaders are directing our banking system and economy. Of course, banking lobbyists did whisper in their ears.
How Does a Banking Crisis Begin?
After it happens, all the pundits say, "I told you so," but these are the same dudes who now tell you that this will help both banking and the economy.
The first brick is the dismantling of Dodd-Frank. Not that Dodd-Frank was any model for banking stability. It is just the good stuff that banks want to eliminate like the Volcker Rule.
The next brick is the so-called stress tests for banks. In the past week all 34 large institutions passed the test, but so the public will be fooled, the Fed says, "Now, there is a second part." This is the point that the lobbyist wanted all along. When the banks pass this part of the stress, they will be allowed to pay or hike their dividends and also to buy back shares, giving their retirement options more wealth.
The third brick is being set by President Trump. He wants to "free-up" $2 trillion for the banks, so they can make more loans to stimulate the economy. It sounds good except the technique is to lower banks capital reserves which puts them in a dangerous position between greed and responsibility. They always choose greed. When you consider the state of retail(brick and mortar) and all their debt and you add the oil industry with all their billions in debt, weakening capital reserves is asking for trouble. Oh, I almost forgot. The rising delinquencies of auto loans to which many were purchased with student loans. The more one thinks about our banking industry, the more worries come to mind.
The next brick is already passed by the House Republicans. It awaits action in the Senate. It is called, Choice Finance. In it, a provision (orderly liquidation authority) allows banks to stop them from being dismantled if they do not have sufficient funds to met their obligations. The banks want to utilize the "bail-in." This means that they can seize our deposits to use as their funds to keep operating. This is corruption!
Of course, it doesn't matter if Choice Finance passes because Papa Fed always has the banks back. I guess it is not whether we get fooled again because we do know. It is just that our so-called democracy doesn't give us a say, to which gives me an idea for a song, "When Will They Do What's Right?"