Friday, November 19, 2010

Common Denominator w/Fed,IMF and EU...when in doubt - PRINT

Next week we should hear about the bailout for Ireland. Just in time for our Thanksgiving Day and the market should give thanks by shooting upwards. However, waiting in the shadows is Portugal, Greece(again), and France. The problem for the European Union is between them and the International Monetary Fund is a limited amount of capital unlike our Federal Reserve which has no restraints. The country which could be the tipping point is Spain. Ireland only(only?) needs $300 billion euros, but Spain will need one trillion euros and the vault is empty. Better get some gold, especially after the pullback and the predictable flight to the dollar when this crisis hits the fan.
It is no different here in the states. There are over 36 states that have a budget gap and this has been going on since before Eisenhower in one form or another. Our government gives it euphemistic terms like earmarks, pork barrel, infrastructure, stimulus, whatever. It is debt that is being added to our national debt because of politics and a lack of discipline by our state governments. Almost every state took some of the last stimulus for their education system, police or fire departments, highway maintenance or similar needs. They are counting on getting even more in 2011 or risk default. Our biggest state by population is first on the list, but this time our printing press sits idle. It is out of ink and the electric bill hasn't been paid because the public has woken up. Praise the Lord!
The real problem will be in austerity. President Sarkozy of France faced riots in the street because he changed their Social Security(they call it - Pension)from 60 to 62. He got elected on change. Does that sound familiar? He has failed to do what he promised to do for France. He may lose the next election like President Obama for similar reasons. Nouriel Roubini believes the EU will collapse because of the weight of its debt. We are looking at the same scenario, but forget about it this week and enjoy your family, friends and love ones. Peace, Be With You.