Wednesday, March 25, 2020

Odds and Ends: March 2020

- Americans are, "satisfied with not less than the best in airplanes and plumbing but accepts the second rate in politics and culture," according to the 1954 book, Age of Conformity by Alan Valentine.

Has nothing changed in the 60-plus years since those words appeared before us? Sadly, it has gotten worse. Politician's spout ideas based solely on how many votes will they garner. President Trump realized that he lost the confidence of America with his first brush with the danger of the virus. He was smart enough to pass the baton to Doctor Fauci. The good doctor realizing the preparation period was missed, advised "keeping a distance" and ending all gatherings of more than 10 people. His heeding's are being followed in states that are suffering the most viral cases. Weak minded reporter's and politician's seeking some insight so that they can be the first to call the end to the virus, keep pestering Dr. Fauci to give a date in defeating this new disease. Thank God, he is a man of integrity. He is too kind to these shills. He never loses his cool no matter how self-serving the question. Compare that to President Trump's lack of control and lack of clear thinking with a reporter questioned him on the same theme? By the way, the democrats are no better. They all want to appear that they have our best interest at heart. They really are seeking to buy your vote in this election year.
By passing $2 trillion plus in stimulus, they will all take bows. What will they do when this fails?

Real Problem

is the lack of truth and facing reality by the people in command. In many cases of contagious flu's, there is a second appearance of the disease after the first known cases hit society. This happens in the following Autumn or Winter. This aspect has not even been forthright in the discussion. However, these same leaders know this possibility. This is why there is a sudden rush to help the economy as more and more businesses and places where people are congested are being ordered to close their doors until the virus passes.
As usual the same help formulas are on the table as in the past. This is the real problem.

Privatize the profits; socialize the losses.

This is what our government does in a crisis. All the complaints over the 2008 financial crisis about bailing out the banking industry while at the same time, this industry was foreclosing on their customer's homes was brushed aside during the crisis. Then, the democrats used this republican answer to defeat them in that election year. They promised redemption. We are still waiting as not one white collar person went to jail. Industry after industry went to the government with the "tin cup." If I may, I will paraphrase the famous poem at the doorway to America. It is sad, but true. Industry after industry used free cash flow to buyback their shares. They bought at the highs (idiots) while at the same time, these CEOs did not replenish their workers pension funds. I believe their should be a law which says, every corporation has the right to do buybacks, if it wants too with shareholders money, however those actions can only be put into effect after all their obligations are met like pension requirements, like a serviceable debt ratio like saving for a rainy day. At the moment the airlines and hospitality businesses are very vulnerable. They were the first to get in line before Congress. Did you know that airlines spent 96% of their free cash flow since 2009 on buybacks? Boeing spent 74% on them. Now, both demand help. Their poem goes like this:

                              Our industry is tired, our poor workers are huddled enmass.
                              Give me billions to recoup as workers are yearning, fearing 
                              eviction at their door; this wretched disease is making them 
                              homeless. This tempest-tost is dimming my lamp and will
                              force me to close my door.

Did not the bankers say the same thing in 2008? Whatever the outcome to meet this crisis by government, the price will come back to crush us in the near future. The debt will explode to a point where all nations will seek to end the dollar as the world's reserve currency. The IMFs ego seeks the power that will appear due to this awaking. China's ego will surface. A compromise will leave the US in a basket of currencies. It will be the first step in the end as our reign as the number one nation in the world. The inflationary effects of this possibility will crush the value of the dollar. It will cause a terrible inflation to our economy. It could get worse with the return of stagflation. The only solution is to distance our nation from China immediately. End all trade. Delist all Chinese firms from our stock exchanges. We do not need to invest in a nation which seeks to displace ours. Put excessive tariffs on all US firms making their product in China. Give all importers a six month notice before implementing this extreme measure. In this way, they can arrange to replant here in America or seek a new supply chain, preferably with Europe or South America. The bottom line is this: China graduates 3-million plus new engineers every year and the US only adds 200,000. Even though we are way more creative than China, the odds favor that one in a million can create a major advantage to a nation that is still communist at heart and in addition, they will still steal our intellectual advances with no conscience. This is the real disease!

My Mom use to say...

there is good and bad in all kinds. The Chinses doctors practice the code, "Do no harm." They have been forthright in providing knowledge about the virus and their techniques in fighting this disease. It is a shame that their government leaders do not adhere to the medical code.
non sequitur...means does not follow. 
Apparently, among all of the outsourced labor and product is medicine. Guess who exports most of the US supply in this category. That's right-China. You know, when I was back in high school and in Latin class, I use to say to myself, why am I here? I'll never use this stuff." Well, I used it here. After I stated a shout out to the Chinese doctors, I added this other down beat notation.


By the way our nation graduates lawyers. This puts one against another with money the driving force. This is why our government does not work. They are all lawyers!

Negative interest rates

are coming as all nations central banks have cut interest rates. This is why the dollar is advancing. This has a two prong effect. Our exports will shrink, but our citizens won't notice because prices will decline as we import everything. Nation's awaken to the realization that the dollar is in deep trouble.
After the crisis passes, a meme will surface to create a new world trading currency because civil unrest will develop everywhere as citizens realize that negative interest rates make money worthless.
The first hurdle will be with the ECB and Germany. The German high court is scheduled to meet to determine if the ECBs purchase with QE is legal?

JOBS!!!

When the government has asked you to stay home in order to avoid getting sick or passing sickness, Amazon posts a job hiring of 100,000. This shows how devious this company is in its thinking. They realize that their people may stay at home. They need bodies in their warehouses. They put pressure on their employed workers by declaring in undeclared terms that they could be replaced. This playbook goes back to the early industrial revolution in our nation. Men were fired at textile firms and replaced by women for attempting to go union. When women realized the same perspective as the men, they were fired. They were replaced with children who were treated like slaves. Oh, yeah,
Amazon fears that union talk will surface, especially since workers are at home and they could talk online. The topic of health care will be one of the workers concerns.



Independence?

is questionable in the US. The word has no strength. I am using the word with reference to government agencies. President Trump is fearing the public's reaction and his bid for re-election will be severely hurt when states collect their unemployment claims this week. He publicly asked them not to be accurate and to delay the count so the weekly unemployment does not set a new all-time record to which will cause the public to lose confidence in the president. How can it not set a record? The hospitality industry alone employs over 15 million citizens. He even added to this idea by suggesting that their be limits on the health care limits of staying at home. He believes we can wear a mask and get back to work?!
He hopes by Easter Sunday. As for the preliminary results for unemployment claims-there was no winner in the pool. No one came close as the number exploded past 3,2 million claims...and counting.

First it was...toilet paper

then, it was food. Now, it is cash, Banks are already limiting withdrawals.

The list is long. The effects powerful. The truth hurts.
Hotel occupancy fell 61% after the first week in March.
Retail sales were actually up 6%. Nothing like hoarding to boost for a day, but the future?
Movie and Box Office will be a disaster, Broadway leads the list by closing until the flu passes.
Consumer comforts like dining out and leisure activities are down and mostly out.

None of this is good for workers and the rest of us, but one thing is certain. Whatever help the government provides is like a forward pass. The receiver will always be the banks as they hold loans and mortgages on all of us. Like I said last week (no one listens) give everyone a holiday so no one has to pay a loan, rent or mortgage. Let the banks feel a month of pain and like the old saying, "If you owe the bank $1,000, you are in trouble. If you owe the bank billions, they are in trouble." They received the bailout in 2008, let them bailout the nation and save the government from destroying the currency and a future economic crisis. Gold is beginning to show the damage fiat governments is doing to the dollar and currencies in general. This is a slow awakening, but the cast on the dye has been set.