- For we wrestle not against flesh and blood, but against principalities, against powers, against the rulers of the darkness of the world, against spiritual wickedness in high places.
- Letter by Paul to the Ephesians
The above letter reminds you the names change, but the sins are the same. Speaking of the Devil, today, after we post, the Federal Reserve will announce the next level in the fight against the inflationary forces that they caused. We stated back in June that we believe the Fed will announce a half-point rate increase in interest rates. If correct, this is their blink. If wrong, the following meeting will determine our overall ability to see through the phoniness of the Federal Reserve. If you recall, we declared this half-point to be followed with a quarter point rate increase. The bottom line: what is the interest rate at the end of the year? Keep in mind, the Fed claimed that they want to see 4.25% interest rate. Of course, talk is cheap and actions is what really counts.
Market Outlook
The market is undergoing indecision. We begin with the present rally. It can trace its roots to the recent decline in the dollar. We told you that if King Dollar falls below 110.05, the market can breathe. The dollar actually fell below the test number, but on last Friday, it regained to climb to 111.98. One could ask is this a fake out? It would be foolish to answer until more facts present itself. Whatever happens, the market will immediately respond. On the upside, the market faces strong resistance at 33,500 on the Dow. The Transports coud test 14,000 and the S&P, 3950. With that said, if the dollar strengthens due to a rate increase, all the indexs will fall. If we are correct with the half-point increase, the market will go into a consolidation period. The market will make its determination with the December Fed meeeting. In the meantime, more and more analyst are becoming bullish. They want you to believe that they are right by reminding you that the market just had its best October since1976. We do not. We are adding this aspect to which is a serious problem. Consider this:
Diesel Fuel
It is needed by farmers, long distant rigs, shipping, factories and other usages. There is a shortage of supply. It amounts to the level of 1982 and the world has 3-billion more people. The average price for a gallon in 2021 was $3.28. It has been over five ($5) bucks since September. When I was in school and we actually did regular math, that means a gallon cost $2.06 more this year. This is inflation! It means food raised by farmers will cost more. When truckers load stuff and bring it to consumers, it will cost more.When shippers re-calculate costs, fuel will be front and center. All our imports and we import everything, will cost more. When you add wages, insurance, utilities and taxes, everything will continue to rise.
In the mid-term elections, the Republicans will blame the Democrats, but the two are equally guilty. We are blessed to have a nation where we can vote. However, like Mark Twain said, "If voting mattered, they wouldn't let us do it." We don't vote party elections. We register as Independents. Someday, we hope our fellow citizens realize that there are more independents than either political party. We can form a new party. We advocated the Liberty Party. The platform has two points: protect American workers and end the military's hold on government that we are the police force for the world. Anyway, we do vote on referendums because this is true democracy. By voting party members, either Democrat or Republican, you are validating them and they are both corrupt. Anyway, this is how we see it. Peace.
