Wednesday, March 15, 2017

America, Trump: Beware the Ides of March

I'm not a superstitious guy. I'm not afraid to walk under a ladder, worry if a mysterious black cat crosses my path or feel any apprehension on Friday the 13th. There are countless other clues to a "dark" day, but I don't follow them or let them get my goat. With that said, I do think that there is a vibe out in the universe and for some unknown reason, things happen on certain dates. Again, I'm not referring to a full moon scenario, but the human condition to fulfill what people believe will happen to happen. It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. March 15th is one of those dates. Maybe because the Bard of Avon is so influential in our culture. I don't know, but two important aspects to our economy will take place on Wednesday.
Would you like a second opinion?
Edson Gould
Ever hear of him? He formulated an economic conclusion that when the Federal Reserve made interest rate hikes, that the third hike would be the beginning of a recession and stocks would crash. This Wednesday should be the third interest rate hike by our central bank. The economy won't stop on that day if the Fed hikes, but the seed will be in the ground to germinate.
Still not convinced? How about this past presidential advisor to Ronald Reagan?
David Stockman
He sees a "bloodbath." He calls this Fed moment, "three steps and tumble." It is the same theory that says after the Fed raises rates three times, the economy tumbles.
Now, do I have your attention? I hope so because there is a second whammy on Wednesday.
Debt Ceiling
The US national debt limit under our Treasury, will expire on Wednesday. I don't foresee any problems with a Republican Congress to help a Republican president. However, the $20T in debt fulfills my prediction. In addition, our ability to repay will generate another possible self-fulfilling prophecy, could the US default?
Consider some related aspects to the date:
Trump wants an expensive, stimulus infrastructure package. He plays politics and allows or compromises with his fellow Republicans with their health care bill. We find out, and it didn't take long, for the Republicans to show their true colors. This has nothing to do with Sean Spicer wearing his American pin flag upside down. This bill sucks! Higher premiums and lower coverage! It is why I dislike or trust the GOP. They never do anything for ordinary citizens. I rather have no health care bill than this one or Obamacare. I was foolish to vote for Obama the first time because the idea of First Payer health plan was great. We didn't get it because the Democrats are corrupt! Now, Trump will learn the hard way that his fellow Republicans won't support tariffs or our workers. They view the world this way. We are management versus workers rather than let us do right and everyone wins. Anyway, you got the Fed hiking interest rates, the US getting deeper in debt, and this time bomb. I predict that the Federal Reserve will seek permission to buy stocks just like central banks in Japan, China and Europe. The fiat system has failed, but they are doing everything to keep it afloat. We are like Caesar, seeing knives coming at him and us from every direction. Sad days ahead.