- ...And if you get the chance - Sing with a joyful voice and sing with a loving heart Merry Christmas to all and happy birthday, my Lord.
- John Lipareli
If you are not familiar with the above Christmas hymn, it is because it will be released in 2024. You get a sneak preview as readers of our blog. JL is the founder of this blog and the writer to the carol above.
Yesterday connects to today and leads to tomorrow
In December 2022, when the experts were given their forecast, none predicted the banking failures or the weak financial conditions in the banking system due to the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates. They just said things are looking good, the economy is growing and the consumer will continue to spend. Their outlook for the markets was higher from 7% to 15%. We did not.
As for their call, only three sectors in the market had a positive return: Technology, communication service and consumer discretionary. Everything else is lagging or weakening. Their outlook on the consumer was correct, but with over $1 trillion in debt and many behind on rent, car loans and living paycheck-to-paycheck, clouds are on the horizon.
Fundamental Approach
We reminded you that a basic strong indicator of the present and future economy is revealed in the "Cardboard Box" supply and demand. It was down for 2022 and continued down in 2023. We just got a second confirmation with the earnings report from FedEx. They lost a staggering $7.68 billion due to plunging demand.
Second Opinion - tech approach
The conference board of leading economic indicators reported another down month in a down trendline of reports.
In addition, the Fed is always wrong, especially when forecasting unemployment. The Fed misses any of their estimates when they hike interest rates concerning unemployment. We bring this up because we feel that the consequences of their actions will be felt by labor in 2024.
In a recent meeting between the Fed chairperson, Powell and Congress, Kennedy of La. He did some math based on information from Powell and the Federal Reserve associated with interest rate hikes, inflation and unemployment. In the past, the Fed stated that in fighting inflation with interest rate hikes, unemployment could rise. For every 2% reduction in inflation, unemployment will rise by 3.6%. This has not happened, so far. However, Kennedy concluded that inflation hit over 9%. To get to the desired 2%, unemployment could rise to 10%. Powell rejected Kennedy. We predict this will reappear in 2024. A report on layoffs for October shows that the pink slip is up 24% for the month.
Same old, same old
China consumes more coal than the rest of the world combined. So much for COP28. Japan keeps their interest rates at negative even though the nation has 2% inflation. Of course, we know that figure is manipulated just like their currency and interest rates.
New Cuture
There are now Dog Bars. You get a play area for Fido and you can watch sports and have a beverage while your dog exercises and plays with other dogs.
12 Days of Christmas
You would have to be in the millionaire class to purchase the 12 gifts of the song. It will run you $46,000 to shower your love one with the 12 presents. Are you kidding me?! Another proof that the Fed has destroyed our currency and standard of living. Anyway, like the lyrics from our founder's Christmas song, "...true gifts are from the heart."
Last Tidbits
Aside from the takeover by Nippon Steel for US Steel, steel prices are up 55% just since October. And yet, we read that the Fed sees inflation falling to their 2% target. Dear Reader, we remind you that price and volume must be in harmony to determine the market's direction. In most cases, king dollar dictates this motion. At the moment, the dollar is testing its low level at .99. This will be good for the market, especially for gold, but it will also cause inflation for the rest of us. This will be the central story for 2024. Peace. Oh yeah, Happy New Year!
