Wednesday, September 27, 2017

Sports Retail: Anatomy of a Losing Season

Week three in the new NFL season and viewership is down 10%. If this trend continues, this will be the third straight down year for the sport. They are not alone. Baseball and basketball have been getting by because of TV revenue and not attendance. You can add hockey to that list. What's happening?
New Kids on the Block 
Many years ago some single minded kids began using their free time to do different activities like cross/bike and skate boarding. This is nothing new in American child development. Generally, these new choices end with that particular generation. The mainstays like football, baseball and basketball dominate the majority. However, child rearing has changed. Kids no longer meet on the street, schoolyard or park. Today, parents take them to planned activities like soccer, karate class or similar. In addition, the advent of video games which combined with television and you had the seeds for new likes and interests.
Our Culture
is strongly effected by the media. When you had stars like Mickey and Yogi in the early 60s, baseball was king, the national past time.
When college football drew our attention with Roger Staubach or Lombardi's Packers in the NFL, the sport zoomed passed baseball to number one. With the introduction of the Super Bowl, it has retained that position ever since. Basketball grew with Magic Johnson and the Lakers versus Larry Bird and the Celtics. However, it has failed to keep our attention since that glory decade. Nevertheless, it has held a steady position in our culture all this time. All of the three major sports are American made and developed. They have been exported to the world, but of the three, basketball will always have a position due to the fact that you can play by yourself with limited expense to enjoy. It is not unique in the aspect of individual expression, but it beats golf, boxing or karate in my opinion. With all that said, television media has lost market share and its audience to the internet. The kids live on their smart phones, laptops and tablets.
Is that all you got?
No, and since this blog centers on our democracy and economy, let me show you the difference in dollars and cents.
The following is a strong representation of our sports apparel through the eyes of stock trends and price.
Company & symbol                       Price:        Was                                           Now
Dick's Sporting Goods(DKS)                      high was in November 2016 @ $62.             $26.
Nike (NKE)                                                 high was in November 2015 @ $67              $53.
Finish Line(FINL)                                       high was in September 2014 @ $31             $9.
Foot Locker(FL)                                          high was in December 2016  @ $79             $33.
Under Armour(UA)                                     high was in May 2016  @ $44                      $15.
Keep in mind that during the same period Sports Authority went bankrupt. Their end was suppose to give a lift to everyone else. Didn't happen! This is another nail into sports retail. In addition, there are many retail stores that carry sports material from supermarkets to dollar locations. Should I mention the bid brick and mortars like J.C. Penny, Sears or Macy's? Of course, as they close stores, sales decline for sports apparel merchandise. Now, while the above has caused the old mainstays to drift to the bottom of the totem pole, the new kids are rising. For many moons the couch potatoes stocks drifted lower after a huge expansion, however the gamers are now leading the pack. They have there own tournaments, conventions and following. This is reflected in the big three that makes the product that kids buy. The results are mixed, but generally upbeat.
Game Stop(GME)                                        high was in December 2015 @ $42              $20.
Activision(ATVI)                                        was $29 in July 2015                                     $83
Electronic Arts(EA)                                     was consolidating between $60 & $70         $118.
Of course, this is not the complete sports outlook. You always have a season in life for different tastes. Golf is such an example. The sport is cynical. If you look at Callaway Golf, the high was during the financial crisis at $18. It fell like everything during that time, but it has slowly climbed back and sits at $14. Nevertheless, youth will be served, but as for me, I play fantasy football and I wear Notre Dame logos. To each his own. Go Irish!