Time keeps on moving...no one foresaw the financial setbacks of this year. The market keeps moving in an uptrend despite all the dangers. Since March, unemployment claims have averaged over 900,000 every week. If not for Payroll Protection Program (PPP), free government loans and forbearance edicts, the economy would be at a standstill and homelessness would be rampant.
One reason why at Evolution, we feel the market keeps hitting new highs is due to cannibalism. When enough shorts appear, bigger funds attack their position by buying. The fear factor is the same whether $100 or $100 million. The old saying is true, "The market can behave irrationally longer than you can remain solvent."
Over 5,000 Pages...an counting...
The would be, could be, new stimulus bill hit a political snag. President Trump has begun his 2024 campaign by demanding citizens receive $2,000 each under the bill. President-elect Biden made his response commercial that he will use for his campaign. It gives him an excuse if his first term fails. He blames Trump for a weak vaccination rollout, passage of stimulus and an overall poor economy. The bill is over 5,000 pages. Dear Reader, can you read a boring, legal document that is that long in less than five days? This is another example of what is wrong with our government. This bill like almost every act, allows pork barrel. A bought off member of Congress puts in pork with this known point: I won't vote in agreement unless you add my addition. This is why the defense bill will pass because too much money influences our weak minded politicians. We will never have peace until we rid ourselves of the warmongers. They waste lives and resources. We could those riches to build a better nation In a related aspect, we had a peek at the previous bill. It had the old...
3 - Martini Lunch...
in it. It provided tax free money for the PPP, this would give small business a negative tax rate to which the IRS says is illegal. The "Double-Dip" a.k.a. George Costanza of Steinfeld fame is the way that I dip my chip, "I dip. I bite and then, I dip again." It also allows firms to endanger workers without the fear of a lawsuit. My eyes are getting stressed from working on my computer/screen. Is there anything in the bill about that?
Apple
is finally getting smart about their product. They have sent a redirection in the company. Now, they will build their own chips, modems, etc. In this way, they can prevent copy-cat products by competitors. This will put a crimp in stealing intellectual property unless they continue to make their products in China. Not all the news on Apple is positive. They lost their lawsuit versus Corellium over the "Virtual I-phone."😢 😡.
In a related aspect, Video Curl says Nvidia and AMD will not be able to meet demand until the 2cd. quarter of 2021.
New Radar
by using light. Company called Luminar is advancing the technology and system.
Nuclear Fusion...might not only be possible, but it could be coming which adds another long-term problem for oil firms. In a related aspect, watch uranium mining firms. They are popping. Why, you ask? The US Senate Committee has approved a bipartisan bill aimed at establishing a US national reserve of uranium.
Fed Report...
by the St. Louis Fed back in the 1980s stated that it takes at least 12-quarters in lag time to reflect changes in money policy in the money supply. With all the printing and probably, more to come, M-2 points to gold rising to $2400 in 2021. In a related aspect...
New Data...
on housing points to serious problems within the industry. Home owners have been hanging on and many with the help of the forbearance rules. This ends in March 2021. In addition, the moratorium on evictions as 11.4 million households owe over $6,000 each. Collectively, this amounts to $70 billion. Moody's Analytics estimates that any new stimulus will not reach these people in time. Not good. Many have not made payments with these protections. However, the payments can be ballooned along with fees. To me, this spells another foreclosure problem. Just like the crisis in 2008 which led to less home ownership and more rentals, this will push the US into a rental nation. The growing list of consumers with bad credit won't help our economy. The data points to the rule of real estate: location, location, location. The following five are already showing signs of strain.
*Miami = 12% of all loans are delinquent. *New York = 11% of all loans are delinquent. *Las Vegas = 10% of all loans are delinquent. *Houston = 10% of all loans are delinquent. * Chicago = 8% arrears.
As time moves to the new year, maybe we can find some solace in the Chinese Horoscope. I felt a negative vibe at this time last year when 2020 was called the Year of the Rat. This was suppose to be good under the Chinese predicable history. At that time I reminded readers that a rat is never good in US culture. Next year is the Year of the White Metal OX or Bull. No wonder the stock market is rising as it always looks ahead. The Ox is hard working and resilient. These are good American traits. Let's hope for the best and keep in mind, the white metal is silver. We, at Evolution like that.
