The word resilient was in the news last week, repeatedly. It got connected to the spending of the consumer. Even with data showing that consumers have breached the trillion-dollar level in credit card debt, retail sales came in positive for July. We say the word is misused when they use it because it lacks its real connecting partner, manipulation. If you continue, you will see our proof.
Retail Sales
How is this data gathered? What are the components? Where's the manipulation? The government uses this index: food, clothing and textiles, footwear, jewelry and small stores. You noticed that Sebastian put the first component in bold lettering. Think why? The Federal Reserve does not include for inflation the three things that all of us need every day: food, energy and shelter. And yet, to make the economy appear strong, it appears under retail sales.
Dear Reader, it not only appears, but we, at Evolution dare to say that it comprises almost 90% of the index. We do not buy new shoes or sneakers every month. We hardly buy jewelry. Clothing sales are mostly seasonal spending, but we all have to eat every day. How do they gather small store info? See the hypocrisy? This is manipulation. It gets worse. Consider the aspect that within each sale is price. Inflation buffers price. For example, in prior years a dozen eggs cost $1.00. The store sold three. Now, you pay $1.50 per dozen. The store sold two. Total sales are the same, but actually fewer products are sold. The real corollary to resilient is the next letter after "r". It is "s" for survivor. The consumer survives by seeking to avoid inflation. The total sales number masks the point that consumers are buying less. The best way to understand this point is the present big movie hit, "Barbie." It is now the best grossing picture. However, if you count ticket sales, it is far less than the original Tom Cruise flick, "Maverick." Today, a ticket runs $10 bucks or more. The ticket price was $5 at one time. Now, do you see our point? The lies of manipulation keep on coming. Many large supermarket chains also sell gas like Walmart and Cosco. So, another item that the Fed does not use is included in retail. End the Fed!
Manipulation...
...is the cornerstone word for the Fed and government agencies. Remember, every administration gets to appoint people to positions in government. They are puppets. Our biggest dislike is the report on labor. The government says it is 3.4%. We say that is BS!
You get a real picture of our economy when you know the number of workers out of the population of working age people. The rate for this year is steady at 62.6%. This data informs you that unemployment is well over 3.4%. Back in the 90s, participation levels were over 66%. By the way, just one tick means around 150,000 people. Part-time work is just existing, not living. Self-employed are a huge segment. Consider a realtor? This person has a job, but if he does not sell a home, he has no income. These examples manipulate the stats. This BS started during the Depression. The great comedy team of Abbot and Costello brought the subject to light. Sadly, we do not have anyone who challenges our government except a few blogs. With that said, we have two lists of jobs. The first reveals the lie of the retail report. The second is like a dawn with an approaching sunny day.
Pink Slips:
Data Scientist: employers hire for one project and done. Soft wear Engineer: There is more help than jobs. UX Designer: AI is showing them the door. Customer Support: Another AI casualty. Warehouse: Slower spending, less inventory needs and automation. Transportation: The rise of Uber and other forms of movement like auto-drive, a shakeout appears. E-Commerce Builders: The pandemic need is over. Excess workers for demand. Construction: Higher rates will cause a slowdown and layoffs. Technology Leads: Recruiting has more people than demand. Basic rules of supply and demand.
Hiring
The labor picture is not all bad. The UPS deal shows extremely high wages for drivers. There are other fields that need help. We have a few.
EMT: The emergency medical technician field is growing, but it lacks workers. Programming: Robotics cannot solve human issues. Farm Labor: The pay is better than you realize and the help sign is everywhere. Construction Boss: Jack of all trades is always in demand. Nurse: The pay is getting better and the need is rising with the Boomers. Child-Care: The pay is terrible. The need is great. It is the same for restaurant workers, bartenders, truck drivers, dispatchers, dog groomers and all things that make our life better. When the government changes its approach to the economy by worrying about the least and not the haves, only then will we have a better society. Peace
