The stock market had a down week as one important indicator trumped the known knowns while another one is simmering in the background. The Oracle of Omaha cannot always be trusted to speak the truth nowadays, but in unscripted moments his inner soul bursts out. He reminded the Fed that anyone can buy bonds, however selling them is the tricky part. Bond rates rose over 4% and this was the real force in bringing down the market.
Investors had jumped on the train of rising home prices, coupled with low rates. This added to the positive impact in the economy and GDP. Suddenly, the train hit an obstacle on the track. Higher prices means less buyers. Higher rates means lower prices. Together, it spells trouble. Let me remind you what boomers learned about credit and what young adults are doing today with credit.
In the past our egos were stroked by the credit card industry offering new cards everyday in the mail. We could buy anything: cars, clothes, take a vacation, whatever. This was Friday afternoon. With Monday's mail came the bill tagged with 18% interest or more. Never again!
Today, the rate of young people not owning a credit card has doubled compared to boomers at their age. The kids listen after all. They will be better for it with their finances.
In the World
countries use bonds to finance everything. The problem is most have abused the system because offering bonds is easy, paying them off is hard. Added into the equation new bonds are offered to pay back past bonds utilizing the concept of rollover. Governments can recall a past bond at 6%, put it into a new bond of 3% and skim off some money to make ends meet. What this is is a version of robbing Peter to pay Paul.
Greece
Argentina, US and many, many more have dipped into this pool on Friday only to suffer the hangover with Monday's mail. The Fed and central banks all use some sought of quantitative easing to lower rates, so their governments can find money to operate and keep the status quo. The problem surfaced when these bureaucrat's decided that their economies needed new revenues and the best way to get new money is through taxes. No one will sponsor taxes, but jobs do it for them. Everyone pays taxes on income. Jobs increase income.
Protectionism
comes in many forms and currency manipulation is on top of the list. A lower currency means more exports. Japan decided to outdo the Fed with its own form of QE. It would debase the Yen. The yen went from 95 to 103 in a few weeks. This is a monster move and behind the scenes, the derivative market I think, was about to explode. Last week, the yen is suddenly back to 95. Why? There was a crisis, but it was kept out of the media. Nevertheless, this change in currency in such a short period of time resulted in interest rates moving upwards. This is the one area where central banks do not have control and control is key here. If rates hold at this level, it means higher rates are coming. Higher rates spell trouble for the stock market and the global market. The Fed will seek to calm the market next week, but there is one aspect that they cannot change. Money left our treasury notes to the tune of $37billion last week. This is big and like the Titanic, these moves, once started, cannot turn on a dime and weave away from a new iceberg that just appears. No one wants to be standing when the music stops. No one wants to own something that is sinking in value. Why would you hold a 3% note when you can get 4% or more? The Fed built a house of low rates on quicksand, and like I have stated repeatedly, they do not have an exit strategy. The market picked up this idea like Monday's mail.
Liars and Crooks: President Obama says he will help the rebels in Syria with small arms. President Johnson said he would help South Vietnam with advisers, military aid and then, ten years of death not to mention one trillion in debt. The rebels have my sympathy, but this is their revolution, not ours. Ours is taking place in Detroit which had 1.8 million people in 1950 and today, 701,000 and that is being kind. One-third are in poverty because of the lie of free trade. According to American Water Works Association, there is a water pipe break somewhere in the US every TWO MINUTES! We need leaders to face the truth at home. I have an answer for our water problem, but who is JFL? He didn't go to an Ivy League school and worse, he went to Catholic school. We cannot allow him a platform to speak. It could ruin everything. This is why we need an evolution in our democracy. The rule makers pass rules demanding an oath of allegiance and then, violate the law. Edward Snowden will suffer for speaking out for a higher oath, the one the Founding Fathers fought for. End the Fed!
Sunday, June 16, 2013
Sunday, June 9, 2013
Conundrum Time!...L&C
I didn't go to a Ivy League school, but that does not mean that those students get special knowledge. I read the same info as they do. They may express themselves in terms like the title piece, whereas I use street terms like stuck between a rock and a hard place to describe a similar situation. The one difference that I do make to note is this: I will take a stand as to what the info is telling me as opposed to the clinging plant that will hem and har as to what it all means.
Greek Myth
expresses it like this: the choice is Scylla or Charybdis? Wall St. likes Hobson's Choice:take it or leave it. What do all these different expressions with identical conclusions mean? Volatility in the stock market.
Trader's Paradise
this is one of the few times that the individual can make money from trading in the stock market. It almost makes me wanna sing:Celebration Time, Come on! Let's celebrate good times...
Let me back-track for one moment. Individuals do not move the market. Institutions do. For example, take gold. It is definitely in a down trend. Why? Because big money and the dollar are against it. While at the same time, the buying by individuals has never been higher. Our demand cannot match big monies fire power. Recently, when gold declined from over $1600 per ounce to $1200 price range, it was because $24billion was set against it. We don't have that kind of influence. Don't fret. When the smoke clears, gold will show its luster. The point of this is simple, the market has declined in two out of the last three weeks. It is singing MEATLOAF.
Housing
builders have run up with housing prices and activity, however interest rates jumped to over 4% and that makes housing less affordable which translates into a lower stock price for builders. Study charts. Find the recent highs and lows. Sell short when prices approach their highs. You can do this with almost all sectors, but I would avoid commodities as too little truth in media info as to their true direction. Also, prices in these categories are set to move in a breakout, but up or down is anybodies guess. If you look at a monthly chart of oil, it is reaching a triangle confluence point, and it will break, very soon. This break will tell you the true strength of the economy and thus, it will point to either a short or buy sectors.
Summer Camp
As stated in my last article, I am in the bear camp, however Jeremy Siegel says the Dow will hit 17,000. He is not alone as almost all hedge funds jump on the Bernanke Put. They may not know COOL & THE GANG, but the tune has been playing in their elevator since 2009. When these people increase share prices, we can take their money for a change. Afterall, there are some people who want to end the dollar because it is too expensive. They want a dollar coin or change. Get it?
My camp has Porter Sansberry, Michael Lombardi, and Harry Dent as counselors. We listen to all types of music and we allow for individual choices, but we all agree that we will beat the other side when we meet in the August competitions to end the summer season.
Liars and Crooks:This week goes to the self serving bureaucracies, specifically, the EPA and DOT. The ideas behind the thinking to form these agencies is all well and good except that once formed they become a political tool and lose their effectiveness. GM has a car called, SAIL. This vehicle cost less than $10K and it gets over 42 miles-per-gallon, however it will not be sold in the US due to the above agency rules. Keep in mind that before these zealots took control this car would pass muster with our environment, safety and mileage along with auto jobs. It would add in the positive, but then again, bureaucracy must be served. This needs to be changed and as always, End the Fed!
Greek Myth
expresses it like this: the choice is Scylla or Charybdis? Wall St. likes Hobson's Choice:take it or leave it. What do all these different expressions with identical conclusions mean? Volatility in the stock market.
Trader's Paradise
this is one of the few times that the individual can make money from trading in the stock market. It almost makes me wanna sing:Celebration Time, Come on! Let's celebrate good times...
Let me back-track for one moment. Individuals do not move the market. Institutions do. For example, take gold. It is definitely in a down trend. Why? Because big money and the dollar are against it. While at the same time, the buying by individuals has never been higher. Our demand cannot match big monies fire power. Recently, when gold declined from over $1600 per ounce to $1200 price range, it was because $24billion was set against it. We don't have that kind of influence. Don't fret. When the smoke clears, gold will show its luster. The point of this is simple, the market has declined in two out of the last three weeks. It is singing MEATLOAF.
Housing
builders have run up with housing prices and activity, however interest rates jumped to over 4% and that makes housing less affordable which translates into a lower stock price for builders. Study charts. Find the recent highs and lows. Sell short when prices approach their highs. You can do this with almost all sectors, but I would avoid commodities as too little truth in media info as to their true direction. Also, prices in these categories are set to move in a breakout, but up or down is anybodies guess. If you look at a monthly chart of oil, it is reaching a triangle confluence point, and it will break, very soon. This break will tell you the true strength of the economy and thus, it will point to either a short or buy sectors.
Summer Camp
As stated in my last article, I am in the bear camp, however Jeremy Siegel says the Dow will hit 17,000. He is not alone as almost all hedge funds jump on the Bernanke Put. They may not know COOL & THE GANG, but the tune has been playing in their elevator since 2009. When these people increase share prices, we can take their money for a change. Afterall, there are some people who want to end the dollar because it is too expensive. They want a dollar coin or change. Get it?
My camp has Porter Sansberry, Michael Lombardi, and Harry Dent as counselors. We listen to all types of music and we allow for individual choices, but we all agree that we will beat the other side when we meet in the August competitions to end the summer season.
Liars and Crooks:This week goes to the self serving bureaucracies, specifically, the EPA and DOT. The ideas behind the thinking to form these agencies is all well and good except that once formed they become a political tool and lose their effectiveness. GM has a car called, SAIL. This vehicle cost less than $10K and it gets over 42 miles-per-gallon, however it will not be sold in the US due to the above agency rules. Keep in mind that before these zealots took control this car would pass muster with our environment, safety and mileage along with auto jobs. It would add in the positive, but then again, bureaucracy must be served. This needs to be changed and as always, End the Fed!
Sunday, June 2, 2013
Bradley Model: June 22 Is Financial D-Day...L&C
Bradley Model. Ever hear of it...follow it? It is based on planetary movements. Laughing already? Do I read a scoff across your face? People in the know never mock Arch Crawford or Peter Eliades who follow the concept developed by Donald Bradley. Maybe you don't recall when Eliades sat on Barron's Round table and he was scoffed, mocked and more when he said correctly, I might add that the Dow would not breach 10,000 for years in 1999. Recently, the model correctly predicted the 15% rise in the stock market with a positive call on November 2012, which the model says will last until the 22cd of June this year.
Donald Bradley felt that natural forces affect human emotions and he categorized planetary position combinations into Long-Term and Middle-Term indicators. When these dates occur, you can generally expect fast and hard price action.
Direction
is for a reversal that continues into the next date which is 8thOctober and the down-trend extends until the new year with a dead cat bounce which turns into a sideways movement.
Bull or Bear
I'm in the bear camp and my call two weeks ago has been fortunate to see the first signs of a turn in the market. It is nice to know even if I was early with the call that such a distinguished financial expert has left us a respected model that sees the same results, although gathered from different sources.
Second Opinion
On Friday the sell off triggered the Hindenburg Omen for the second time this year. When was the first, you ask? Tax day, April 15th. How's that for an omen? Need another? This all falls under bullish stats, however this screams to be in the contrary camp. Bullish sentiment is at 90% and Consumer Staples hit 100% for the first time ...ever. Folks, only GOD is 100%. By the way margin loan values set a new record at $384billion. Of course, not everything is up. On the opposite spectrum, gold miners is on the bottom and if the Bradley Model is correct, everything will sink, including gold.
1%
have lost touch with the rest of us and this disconnect is reflected by the power structure that fails to understand this next point on the vertex. This is sad, but true fact: 45% of children in Miami, 50% of children in Cleveland and 60% of children in Detroit live in poverty. When President Obama took office, there were 32million Americans on food stamps. Today, that number is 47million and...growing. The number of Americans on food stamps exceeds the COMBINED POPULATIONS of Alaska, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia and Wyoming.
We have a problem and it will get worse when the lines of the disconnect intersect with the lines of the connected.
Case in point: Before NAFTA we had a surplus with Mexico, and now, we have a $61.6 billion deficit. Free trade is a lie and all of the above proves my point.
Liars and Crooks: Sallie Mae(SLM) the student loan agency sponsored by the government wants to split into two separate divisions. Of course, they do. With student loans being the second highest consumer debt and with default rates climbing, what better way to survive a bureaucratic disaster than to shift the blame to somebody else.
Donald Bradley felt that natural forces affect human emotions and he categorized planetary position combinations into Long-Term and Middle-Term indicators. When these dates occur, you can generally expect fast and hard price action.
Direction
is for a reversal that continues into the next date which is 8thOctober and the down-trend extends until the new year with a dead cat bounce which turns into a sideways movement.
Bull or Bear
I'm in the bear camp and my call two weeks ago has been fortunate to see the first signs of a turn in the market. It is nice to know even if I was early with the call that such a distinguished financial expert has left us a respected model that sees the same results, although gathered from different sources.
Second Opinion
On Friday the sell off triggered the Hindenburg Omen for the second time this year. When was the first, you ask? Tax day, April 15th. How's that for an omen? Need another? This all falls under bullish stats, however this screams to be in the contrary camp. Bullish sentiment is at 90% and Consumer Staples hit 100% for the first time ...ever. Folks, only GOD is 100%. By the way margin loan values set a new record at $384billion. Of course, not everything is up. On the opposite spectrum, gold miners is on the bottom and if the Bradley Model is correct, everything will sink, including gold.
1%
have lost touch with the rest of us and this disconnect is reflected by the power structure that fails to understand this next point on the vertex. This is sad, but true fact: 45% of children in Miami, 50% of children in Cleveland and 60% of children in Detroit live in poverty. When President Obama took office, there were 32million Americans on food stamps. Today, that number is 47million and...growing. The number of Americans on food stamps exceeds the COMBINED POPULATIONS of Alaska, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia and Wyoming.
We have a problem and it will get worse when the lines of the disconnect intersect with the lines of the connected.
Case in point: Before NAFTA we had a surplus with Mexico, and now, we have a $61.6 billion deficit. Free trade is a lie and all of the above proves my point.
Liars and Crooks: Sallie Mae(SLM) the student loan agency sponsored by the government wants to split into two separate divisions. Of course, they do. With student loans being the second highest consumer debt and with default rates climbing, what better way to survive a bureaucratic disaster than to shift the blame to somebody else.
Sunday, May 26, 2013
Does Anyone, Tell It, Like It Is?...L&C
Does anyone know the 1965 song, Tell It Like It Is, sung in the lamenting R&Bs style by Aaron Neville? It should come back in play because today, everyone practices first their escape from the truth with publicist, think tanks, private questionnaires, et al. There is only sound bytes and spins of the truth. The best society can hope for is a 60 Minutes revelation sometime in the future or some insights by blogs like mine.
Lois Lerner
gets a bold type here, but is it because she was the whistle-blower which started the IRS scandal into tax exempt status as the head of that arm within the agency or because once she started it, she refused to answer questions about it, claiming her fifth amendment rights? Going further, is it because she is on extended paid leave of absence at the taxpayers expense? We get headlines, but no truth or substance.
Anthony Weiner...Cruz vs. McCain?
all attention getting names, but for what? Weiner wants to be mayor of New York and Cruz is fighting his fellow republican over a budget deal because he doesn't want a debt ceiling amount included. Yeah, really important stuff. Did the media ever get deeper into the bridge collapse in the state of Washington? Of course, not! According to the Society of Civil Engineers, the US needs $3.6tillion for infrastructure. It gets worse. Of the 607,380 bridges in the US, one in nine is structurally deficient and the average age is 42 years, but then, we need money for drones, ships, any military escapade imaginable. Do you know what this means? Taxes. Since the Republicans oppose taxes, there will be some type of deal, probably gas taxes which the federal government has not raised since 1993. Both parties will spin with the shale bonanza resulting in lower gasoline costs which by the way are actually two cents higher than this time last Memorial Day, but who knows or remembers that? I do.
Housing
sales rose along with prices, but Dr.Copper is telling a different diagnosis. In fact Goldman Sachs is getting out of their long-term contracts in the commodity due to new Chinese rules against financing changes addressing it as an asset and this should cause a surplus. Now, they see lower prices. Don't forget I told you about mandatory PMI on all mortgages if the buyer does not have 20% down payment.
Business Spending
is down 21% according to a Bloomberg report. This adds one more lie to the rising stock market which keeps rising according to the media because of higher earnings. Is it higher real earnings or Pro-Forma gimmick? Is it because the company bought back its stock to hide the fact that earnings are lower? Did you notice how many companies claimed higher earnings, but with lower revenues? Too many to list here, but S&P 500 projected earnings growth is only 1.6% according to a Mutual Bond find. Did you know that company insiders sold $350million just last month? Why? If prices are going higher, why, I ask again?
Default
If I asked you to name the country with the highest possibility to default, who would you name? Greece? No, but a good guess. Argentina has a 84% risk. In fact they are serial defaulters with the most recent being in 1989, 2001 and again in 2005. This time it is over previous bonds that they defaulted upon and people want their money. The judge hearing the case said, "Argentina is contumacious." I looked it up. It means obstinate to authority. Not good, however the ramifications do not end in that court room. In Europe many financially troubled nations are looking at this case and thinking, maybe we should default too? Not good.
Banking
and the lending of money is at a 60 year low. This is M2 money and it is just sitting in banks. There is no velocity of money and this is not good.
Outsourcing
continues under President Obama even though he campaigned against this loss of jobs in the economy. According to labor advocate, Robert E. Scott the US lost 400,000 jobs just to China from 2008 to 2010. In fact the US only added .1% of new jobs in exports while China has added 1.5% during the same period due to exports. The Obama administration continually seeks to rewrite the rules to allow US corporations to avoid paying taxes on income generated overseas and this too, he campaigned against. Not good.
Finally
Did I hear someone say, Yea!? Wiseguy
60% of all the stimulus money put into alternative energy forms helps foreign companies. That's right! Many of the most expensive and important components are made elsewhere like wind turbines, and this is from a study by the Department of Energy.
Liars and Crooks:with the terrible news of the killing tornadoes in Oklahoma, we must look into how terrible our insurance companies deal with their customers. I know people who suffered from Hurricane Sandy and for example, they receive only partial refunds for total losses. A new heater/ boiler cost over $8K and these crooks only write checks for $3750. Get out of town!
Lois Lerner
gets a bold type here, but is it because she was the whistle-blower which started the IRS scandal into tax exempt status as the head of that arm within the agency or because once she started it, she refused to answer questions about it, claiming her fifth amendment rights? Going further, is it because she is on extended paid leave of absence at the taxpayers expense? We get headlines, but no truth or substance.
Anthony Weiner...Cruz vs. McCain?
all attention getting names, but for what? Weiner wants to be mayor of New York and Cruz is fighting his fellow republican over a budget deal because he doesn't want a debt ceiling amount included. Yeah, really important stuff. Did the media ever get deeper into the bridge collapse in the state of Washington? Of course, not! According to the Society of Civil Engineers, the US needs $3.6tillion for infrastructure. It gets worse. Of the 607,380 bridges in the US, one in nine is structurally deficient and the average age is 42 years, but then, we need money for drones, ships, any military escapade imaginable. Do you know what this means? Taxes. Since the Republicans oppose taxes, there will be some type of deal, probably gas taxes which the federal government has not raised since 1993. Both parties will spin with the shale bonanza resulting in lower gasoline costs which by the way are actually two cents higher than this time last Memorial Day, but who knows or remembers that? I do.
Housing
sales rose along with prices, but Dr.Copper is telling a different diagnosis. In fact Goldman Sachs is getting out of their long-term contracts in the commodity due to new Chinese rules against financing changes addressing it as an asset and this should cause a surplus. Now, they see lower prices. Don't forget I told you about mandatory PMI on all mortgages if the buyer does not have 20% down payment.
Business Spending
is down 21% according to a Bloomberg report. This adds one more lie to the rising stock market which keeps rising according to the media because of higher earnings. Is it higher real earnings or Pro-Forma gimmick? Is it because the company bought back its stock to hide the fact that earnings are lower? Did you notice how many companies claimed higher earnings, but with lower revenues? Too many to list here, but S&P 500 projected earnings growth is only 1.6% according to a Mutual Bond find. Did you know that company insiders sold $350million just last month? Why? If prices are going higher, why, I ask again?
Default
If I asked you to name the country with the highest possibility to default, who would you name? Greece? No, but a good guess. Argentina has a 84% risk. In fact they are serial defaulters with the most recent being in 1989, 2001 and again in 2005. This time it is over previous bonds that they defaulted upon and people want their money. The judge hearing the case said, "Argentina is contumacious." I looked it up. It means obstinate to authority. Not good, however the ramifications do not end in that court room. In Europe many financially troubled nations are looking at this case and thinking, maybe we should default too? Not good.
Banking
and the lending of money is at a 60 year low. This is M2 money and it is just sitting in banks. There is no velocity of money and this is not good.
Outsourcing
continues under President Obama even though he campaigned against this loss of jobs in the economy. According to labor advocate, Robert E. Scott the US lost 400,000 jobs just to China from 2008 to 2010. In fact the US only added .1% of new jobs in exports while China has added 1.5% during the same period due to exports. The Obama administration continually seeks to rewrite the rules to allow US corporations to avoid paying taxes on income generated overseas and this too, he campaigned against. Not good.
Finally
Did I hear someone say, Yea!? Wiseguy
60% of all the stimulus money put into alternative energy forms helps foreign companies. That's right! Many of the most expensive and important components are made elsewhere like wind turbines, and this is from a study by the Department of Energy.
Liars and Crooks:with the terrible news of the killing tornadoes in Oklahoma, we must look into how terrible our insurance companies deal with their customers. I know people who suffered from Hurricane Sandy and for example, they receive only partial refunds for total losses. A new heater/ boiler cost over $8K and these crooks only write checks for $3750. Get out of town!
Sunday, May 19, 2013
PREDICTION:Stock Market Correction Starts...L&C
Down? What?!? Are you out of your mind? The stock market has hit new highs in the Dow, S&P 500 and the Transports with new records on a daily occurrence. What experience do you have to justify such a statement?
Experience is the name so many people give to their mistakes.- Oscar Wilde
I will lay out some of the indicators that I use and then, some like the first response, the reasons why I could be wrong or very early in my call.
What I See
*The first thing that strikes me is the financial media misleading the public about this and past earning seasons. For instance, one really important company for technology is Applied Materials Inc.(AMAT). It not only reflects the health of technology companies, but also consumer electronics. The media gushed over the Pro-Forma earnings of .17cents a share last week, which beat the street estimate by .03cents. Oh, really? If you look at their company statement, the bottom line was an .11cents loss. This is not the only company which misleads by the phony Pro-Forma recipe and the financial media does this type of reporting with every signal company. You either made money or you didn't. Pro-Forma should be outlawed along with other accounting tricks which are lying about the strength of a company and the economy as a whole. You cannot have excuses of one time charges like someone slipped on a banana peel and sued because it is what it is. Maybe, just maybe, investors will see this one time charge happening more than once and realize what a sloppy company this is and why would I put my money behind it.
*In Europe it was reported that car sales rose for the first time since 2011. Oh, really? The fact that car sales have shrunk every quarter since 2011 does not get mentioned and what happened is a low number beat another low number. This is the reality. Europe's economy has been contracting with .02 negative for the past quarter. In addition, each quarter adds a new country to the list that are in recession. Let me digress for one moment. If your neighbor loses their job, it is a recession. If you lose your job, then, it becomes a depression. Enough with euphemism for our economic situation. It is another example of misleading information, if you can really call it information. By the way Europe's second biggest economy, France, joins eight other nations that are suffering. The leader, Germany is also seeing a shrinking economy, but this is an election year and I'm sure there will be many spins about the strength of Europe's number one economic powerhouse.
*New York regional manufacturing shrunk 1.2% for the past month.
*Philadelphia region also declined in manufacturing.
*The nation as a whole had a decline of .05% for the past month.
*In the stock market loan margin amounts grew to $380billion which is only one billion off the record just before the crash in 2007.
*79% of reporting companies have given a warning on future revenues.
*Lastly, commodities started this rally and now, they are the first ones to breakdown. Oil is still high at $96 per barrel, but a long way down from its high of $147 a barrel. Gold is down from $1900 per ounce to now $1347 per ounce and the dollar has broken out in value to 84.35. Keep in mind the market hates a strong dollar and the decouple will happen again. At present both the market and the dollar are hitting new highs.
Contrary Indicators
a report by US Trust that analyses the Fed's policy to the economy says the experiment has helped heal and normalize the economy. Oh, really? Since when is an experiment considered normal? They are manipulating. They have driven down the savings on interest rates below inflation, however if you look closer you will see that rates are rising from 1.69% to 1.95% last week on ten year treasury notes.
*In Japan which saw its exchange explode over 15,000 last week adds with this tidbit. A girl rock group called Machikado Keiki sings about how high the market will rise.
*Barron's magazine had a bull bouncing on a pogo stick indicating the market to bounce higher.
*My favorite, the Super Bowl indicator. When an original NFL team wins the Super Bowl, the market rises that year. If a AFL team wins the Super Bowl, the market declines that year. Baltimore won and they are an expansion AFL team.
Why I'm Wrong
*There is a lot of money still on the sidelines.
*Don't fight the Fed with its easy money policy.
*Dow Theory is in place with both the Dow and Transports making new highs.
*The continuing strength in the housing sector. (I didn't mention this in my above indicators, but PMI will add one percent to new home purchases which I see stalling and then, dropping).
Companies are doing a legal technique to make their bottom line appear better than it is by buying back their stock. Too many companies use this system which I see as a negative because they are not investing in future product(R&D)or placing money in their pension funds to fulfill obligations to their workers.
Some people say that the Baltimore Ravens are really an NFL team called the Baltimore Colts which I believe are in Indiana. More misleading info.
Your Decision
I rest my case. I just want to say one more thing. Because I went on record with this call does not mean that the market will sink 200 points on Monday or any day next week. My ego is not that big or the effects of this blog. In fact there is a crazy stat that says the market has risen using average on Tuesday for over 177 straight times, but as I see it, the weekly totals will level, and then, fall to which the sequester will add to weekly unemployment even if it is only a one day furlough.
Liars and Crooks:This week the IRS scandal and the attack on the embassy in Libya were and will continue to be in the news. I have nothing against finding the truth in all things which in this case is more political of Republicans versus Democrats. I like to see Tom Cruse talk about the truth, especially with earnings season in the stock market and my all-time number one, End the Fed!
Experience is the name so many people give to their mistakes.- Oscar Wilde
I will lay out some of the indicators that I use and then, some like the first response, the reasons why I could be wrong or very early in my call.
What I See
*The first thing that strikes me is the financial media misleading the public about this and past earning seasons. For instance, one really important company for technology is Applied Materials Inc.(AMAT). It not only reflects the health of technology companies, but also consumer electronics. The media gushed over the Pro-Forma earnings of .17cents a share last week, which beat the street estimate by .03cents. Oh, really? If you look at their company statement, the bottom line was an .11cents loss. This is not the only company which misleads by the phony Pro-Forma recipe and the financial media does this type of reporting with every signal company. You either made money or you didn't. Pro-Forma should be outlawed along with other accounting tricks which are lying about the strength of a company and the economy as a whole. You cannot have excuses of one time charges like someone slipped on a banana peel and sued because it is what it is. Maybe, just maybe, investors will see this one time charge happening more than once and realize what a sloppy company this is and why would I put my money behind it.
*In Europe it was reported that car sales rose for the first time since 2011. Oh, really? The fact that car sales have shrunk every quarter since 2011 does not get mentioned and what happened is a low number beat another low number. This is the reality. Europe's economy has been contracting with .02 negative for the past quarter. In addition, each quarter adds a new country to the list that are in recession. Let me digress for one moment. If your neighbor loses their job, it is a recession. If you lose your job, then, it becomes a depression. Enough with euphemism for our economic situation. It is another example of misleading information, if you can really call it information. By the way Europe's second biggest economy, France, joins eight other nations that are suffering. The leader, Germany is also seeing a shrinking economy, but this is an election year and I'm sure there will be many spins about the strength of Europe's number one economic powerhouse.
*New York regional manufacturing shrunk 1.2% for the past month.
*Philadelphia region also declined in manufacturing.
*The nation as a whole had a decline of .05% for the past month.
*In the stock market loan margin amounts grew to $380billion which is only one billion off the record just before the crash in 2007.
*79% of reporting companies have given a warning on future revenues.
*Lastly, commodities started this rally and now, they are the first ones to breakdown. Oil is still high at $96 per barrel, but a long way down from its high of $147 a barrel. Gold is down from $1900 per ounce to now $1347 per ounce and the dollar has broken out in value to 84.35. Keep in mind the market hates a strong dollar and the decouple will happen again. At present both the market and the dollar are hitting new highs.
Contrary Indicators
a report by US Trust that analyses the Fed's policy to the economy says the experiment has helped heal and normalize the economy. Oh, really? Since when is an experiment considered normal? They are manipulating. They have driven down the savings on interest rates below inflation, however if you look closer you will see that rates are rising from 1.69% to 1.95% last week on ten year treasury notes.
*In Japan which saw its exchange explode over 15,000 last week adds with this tidbit. A girl rock group called Machikado Keiki sings about how high the market will rise.
*Barron's magazine had a bull bouncing on a pogo stick indicating the market to bounce higher.
*My favorite, the Super Bowl indicator. When an original NFL team wins the Super Bowl, the market rises that year. If a AFL team wins the Super Bowl, the market declines that year. Baltimore won and they are an expansion AFL team.
Why I'm Wrong
*There is a lot of money still on the sidelines.
*Don't fight the Fed with its easy money policy.
*Dow Theory is in place with both the Dow and Transports making new highs.
*The continuing strength in the housing sector. (I didn't mention this in my above indicators, but PMI will add one percent to new home purchases which I see stalling and then, dropping).
Companies are doing a legal technique to make their bottom line appear better than it is by buying back their stock. Too many companies use this system which I see as a negative because they are not investing in future product(R&D)or placing money in their pension funds to fulfill obligations to their workers.
Some people say that the Baltimore Ravens are really an NFL team called the Baltimore Colts which I believe are in Indiana. More misleading info.
Your Decision
I rest my case. I just want to say one more thing. Because I went on record with this call does not mean that the market will sink 200 points on Monday or any day next week. My ego is not that big or the effects of this blog. In fact there is a crazy stat that says the market has risen using average on Tuesday for over 177 straight times, but as I see it, the weekly totals will level, and then, fall to which the sequester will add to weekly unemployment even if it is only a one day furlough.
Liars and Crooks:This week the IRS scandal and the attack on the embassy in Libya were and will continue to be in the news. I have nothing against finding the truth in all things which in this case is more political of Republicans versus Democrats. I like to see Tom Cruse talk about the truth, especially with earnings season in the stock market and my all-time number one, End the Fed!
Sunday, May 12, 2013
Fed Printing=Loss of Financial Freedom...L&C
Everyone knows that central bankers around the world are debauching their currencies, seeking to gain an niche in the export market, but few see the real dangers that is happening beneath the radar. Take Japan for example. This week the $Yen fell in value to over 100 in exchange to the dollar. This is great for Sony, Toyota, et al. in the near-term, but the people of Japan will suffer over the long-term. The problem is inflation for the citizens and a possible bankruptcy for the government. At present Japan spends 21% of its revenues on interest for the nation's debt which is $11.2trillion, however the present printing policy adds another $455billion to it. This printing will mean that the value of Japan's debt will be twice the GDP($5.8t). They can print all they want, but who wants something that will have no value? The people of Japan will lose their financial freedom and this great island nation will be seeking global welfare.
Cypress
another island nation which is already seeking welfare from the ECB. However, I want to stress the real danger with these central banks controlling a nation's money. What did the citizens of Cypress do when they could not get access to their money? The bills do not go away. You will still owe the electric, rent or mortgage, food, energy, etc. Those people will add fees and charges to your bill if not received on time. They don't care about your access to your money problem. Capital controls was tested with success. Not only that, but the fact that the government stole depositor's money was also set in stone. This is what central banks want under the thinking of a One World Order with them in charge.
This is the way that they are executing this policy. Electronic accounting. The Fed does not have money in its vault. When you hear or read that the Fed is printing new money to buy Treasuries or bonds in the market place, do you picture a building with a row of printing presses going 24/7? Dear reader, this is a false image. Did you realize that 93% of all the money in circulation is just an electronic debit or credit? Does anyone pay a bill with a check? You hardly see dollars in exchange at the grocery and elsewhere. People like the convenience of credit cards. Money is disappearing and the Fed likes this result. The Millennial's make it easy for them to enact this change because young people grab on to technology changes. They do not look to the negative aspects like being frozen from the ATM, banks or other financial exchanges. They fail to realize that by going to a bank you get a receipt from the teller which gives someone employment and you have written prove of an exchange. Banks love the idea of ending branch banks, cutting labor and ultimately, charging for Internets service. Don't be a step in this plan. Demand bank service, use currency in retail exchanges and vote to End the Fed! Keep in mind that if another financial crisis appears as a cloud in your morning coffee, at least you will have cash(gold&silver is better)in the house to weather the storm until the banks reopen.
Liars and Crooks: this week goes to the lies of the banking industry that wants you to do your banking over the Internet. This week in the news the story of cyber criminals stealing over $45million were finally caught. Dear reader, hacking into banks is big money and only the control of the media in exposing more of these stories is why there is little discussion and because they want your money. Stealing by hacking is already higher in value than all the armed robberies ever committed. End the Fed!
Cypress
another island nation which is already seeking welfare from the ECB. However, I want to stress the real danger with these central banks controlling a nation's money. What did the citizens of Cypress do when they could not get access to their money? The bills do not go away. You will still owe the electric, rent or mortgage, food, energy, etc. Those people will add fees and charges to your bill if not received on time. They don't care about your access to your money problem. Capital controls was tested with success. Not only that, but the fact that the government stole depositor's money was also set in stone. This is what central banks want under the thinking of a One World Order with them in charge.
This is the way that they are executing this policy. Electronic accounting. The Fed does not have money in its vault. When you hear or read that the Fed is printing new money to buy Treasuries or bonds in the market place, do you picture a building with a row of printing presses going 24/7? Dear reader, this is a false image. Did you realize that 93% of all the money in circulation is just an electronic debit or credit? Does anyone pay a bill with a check? You hardly see dollars in exchange at the grocery and elsewhere. People like the convenience of credit cards. Money is disappearing and the Fed likes this result. The Millennial's make it easy for them to enact this change because young people grab on to technology changes. They do not look to the negative aspects like being frozen from the ATM, banks or other financial exchanges. They fail to realize that by going to a bank you get a receipt from the teller which gives someone employment and you have written prove of an exchange. Banks love the idea of ending branch banks, cutting labor and ultimately, charging for Internets service. Don't be a step in this plan. Demand bank service, use currency in retail exchanges and vote to End the Fed! Keep in mind that if another financial crisis appears as a cloud in your morning coffee, at least you will have cash(gold&silver is better)in the house to weather the storm until the banks reopen.
Liars and Crooks: this week goes to the lies of the banking industry that wants you to do your banking over the Internet. This week in the news the story of cyber criminals stealing over $45million were finally caught. Dear reader, hacking into banks is big money and only the control of the media in exposing more of these stories is why there is little discussion and because they want your money. Stealing by hacking is already higher in value than all the armed robberies ever committed. End the Fed!
Sunday, May 5, 2013
A New Way To Massage The Results...L&C
Got to give it up for those bureaucrats at the Bureau of Economic Analysis(BEA), they found a new way to make the economy look better than it is. The massaging of facts is a specialty of governments everywhere. In fact, I can't wait to read what the Spanish government or the ECM will say is a new positive for that nation which has youth unemployment at over 56%. Anyway, back in the good ol' USA, the BEA says that "intangible assets" have been overlooked for too long. What, you ask is an intangible assets? It is money that is used under R&D to produce a new product. The BEA is looking at the movie/TV industry. They say when a company invests to develop a new show like Seinfeld and it becomes a big hit, well that R&D money is a intangible assets. Here is the lie in this report. The government is counting all the investment, however many more shows fail than succeed and thus, there are more real losses than gains. The loses will never be added to this figure only the gains. It gets worse. Let's say you are a people driver to a location from the studio. Now, the studio changes your job description to move props instead of people with the same pay. The government now says this salary is part of R&D and therefore it gets counted twice. Once under general wages for GDP and a second time because this driver is helping under R&D. I bet the Labor Department will like this aspect. Maybe they can say we grew at twice the expected labor rate.
Big Mac Index
ever hear of it? The Economic Magazine started this back in 1986. They follow the price of a Big Mac through the years because they too felt that the CPI figures were being massaged. From 1986 to present the index has risen 173%, while the government says inflation has risen only 110% since that time. My calculations work out to 6.4% average over that span by the magazine and using the CPI results, inflation averages a fraction over 4%. I went to the government site to double check the results and of course, the governments lower figures.
Don't Add Up
In the 27 years the government only shows that inflation was over 4% three times=1989,1990,and 1991. So, how could they get a 4% average when their yearly figures do not match their final conclusions? Bureaucratic Lies!...just like the new BEA addition to the GDP just like the new, but still not adopted chained social security index.
Liars and Crooks: must be a dynasty because central banks win again! It has been confirmed that central banks are buying equities from a survey by Central Banking Publication and Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC to which 60 central banks responded. It found that 23% bought equities or plan to purchase them. From the Bank of Switzerland to Japan to Israel to Czech National bank, they all have at least 10% holdings of reserves. Do you know the difference between them printing paper to buy a piece of someones company and you? JAIL! You are a counterfeiter, and they by law, are legal.
Ben Bernanke once said gold was not money and although miners accumulate costs of up to $1100 per ounce of gold to find a mine, buy the equipment, gets permits, hire workers, mill the rock to actually get an ounce of gold. Compare that to Ben, who can legally buy by printing paper, but then again, he won't buy gold, it is not money. End the Fed!
Big Mac Index
ever hear of it? The Economic Magazine started this back in 1986. They follow the price of a Big Mac through the years because they too felt that the CPI figures were being massaged. From 1986 to present the index has risen 173%, while the government says inflation has risen only 110% since that time. My calculations work out to 6.4% average over that span by the magazine and using the CPI results, inflation averages a fraction over 4%. I went to the government site to double check the results and of course, the governments lower figures.
Don't Add Up
In the 27 years the government only shows that inflation was over 4% three times=1989,1990,and 1991. So, how could they get a 4% average when their yearly figures do not match their final conclusions? Bureaucratic Lies!...just like the new BEA addition to the GDP just like the new, but still not adopted chained social security index.
Liars and Crooks: must be a dynasty because central banks win again! It has been confirmed that central banks are buying equities from a survey by Central Banking Publication and Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC to which 60 central banks responded. It found that 23% bought equities or plan to purchase them. From the Bank of Switzerland to Japan to Israel to Czech National bank, they all have at least 10% holdings of reserves. Do you know the difference between them printing paper to buy a piece of someones company and you? JAIL! You are a counterfeiter, and they by law, are legal.
Ben Bernanke once said gold was not money and although miners accumulate costs of up to $1100 per ounce of gold to find a mine, buy the equipment, gets permits, hire workers, mill the rock to actually get an ounce of gold. Compare that to Ben, who can legally buy by printing paper, but then again, he won't buy gold, it is not money. End the Fed!
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