Wednesday, August 5, 2015

Signs, Signs, Everywhere a Sign...

Do you remember that oldie? The wisdom behind it is still relevant. Greece proved that. I fear the US national deficit will second the motion. In fact, Greece has borrowed less than the US since 2007 when you relate the borrowing as a percentage to GDP. The US borrows 7.45% and Greece takes 7.3%. Both are really sad numbers.
In relation, it has been years since Pete Peterson's, Running On Empty and deficit figures have doubled which is in itself, totally insane to contemplate.
The Shanghai stock market climbed 159% in less than a year and then, lost 35% in less than 30 days.
Picture Clear?
Connecting the dots and it gives focus. If it is still not clear enough for you, here is some help and clues to provide an answer.
* The Shanghai market may bounce, but the Chinese society look around and see a slowing economy. This will cause a rush for the exit doors. The government will only compound the effect with more desperate restrictions. Then again, the Chinese see their housing market imploding and their faith in government will be shaken which could lead to a new bubble like gold, but most probably, everyone will hold their money under their mattress. In a sidebar, South Korea just had its biggest month in the purchase of the yellow metal.
* The US market is facing a summer doldrums with September and October looming.
* Oil prices! The summer driving seasonal bounce is over. Oil inventories are building and Iran only adds to the glut. Many small explorers could go belly-up which will effect the $600 billion junk bond market. Like I say in my unpublished book, all things are connected.
* Emerging markets are suffering from low commodity prices and the strong dollar effects our companies too.
* The Fed, if they finally do what they say they will do and raise interest rates,this will cause a ripple effect in Treasuries and all bonds. If too many sell, a liquidity crisis could surface. I have previously warned you that there is insufficient cash in circulation to cover all the credit debt that has exploded since 2007.
* Gold. It is in a quandary. The big buying season in August is here and both the Chinese and Indians could spark a needed rally. If it becomes a meme with Europe, the US will awaken against the wishes of the fiat powers. They won't be able to stop it, but this will only cause another bubble and all bubbles never end well.
Now everyone, "Signs, signs, everywhere a sign..."

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