Wednesday, September 12, 2018

Housing: Crisis to Present - Troubling Signs

What if I told you that there are still 54 US cities with homes that are still underwater even after the media claims housing has recovered? Who would you believe? This report comes from an agency tied to the census bureau. They collected national data from the 50 states of our union. I will list just twelve. You can call them the disciples of danger. Behind the stats is proof that our declining standard of living is effecting a national level. People have jobs, but the wages cannot keep up with inflation. State taxes rise. Medical is up in the stratosphere. The big three, food, energy and shelter are not in the matrix that the Federal Reserve uses. Consumers have excess debt that prevent them from saving for a down payment to a home. Consider, even though homes have appreciated over the last ten years, there are many locations that are stuck in limbo because as a nation we are losing social mobility. If people cannot advance, then it is a slow decay. This is evident across the nation as revealed in this list. When you view the list, keep in mind that one in five homes in those cities is still under water. In some localities it is worse.
The list will show the city, state and the percentage as to the city as a whole. It is very scary.

*Columbus, Ohio=                                                       20%
*Milwaukee, Wisconsin=                                             24%
*Detroit, Michigan=                                                     36%
*Toledo, Ohio=                                                             22%
*Birmingham, Alabama=                                            20%
*Cleveland, Ohio=                                                        31%
*Baltimore, Maryland=                                               22%
*Jacksonville, Florida=                                                39%
*Hartford, Connecticut=                                             43%
*Chicago, Illinois=                                                       22%
*Newark, New Jersey=                                                29%
*Norfolk, Virginia=                                                     21%
There are over another twenty in double digits, but I think that you get the drift. The danger is broad in scope.

In addition, builders have almost totally vacated the entry level, starter home. In past pieces I have shown you that with the media income of $38,000 per year, consumers cannot meet the lending standards to obtain a mortgage. The prices of homes exceed our ability to purchase them. In addition, consumers accumulated debt which also becomes an obstacle to qualify for a home loan. This is the reason why builders do not build starter homes. Also, in the earnings report by construction firms, they all mentioned rising costs, labor shortage and scarcity of land in cities or their suburbs. Then, we have the recent stats from government reports. It is revealing a dangerous, negative trend.
Pending home sales have declined from their already low levels for the seventh straight month. Home sales have declined for four of the last five months. Keep this in mind as the Fed raises interest rates which will add to the problem and to the trend.

If you think Trump is wrong on tariffs, you are sadly mistaken. He does not go far enough! No political, so-called leader in our nation dares to address this issue that effects our wages, our future and our standard of living more than those high paying manufacturing jobs. These are the type of jobs that offers social mobility. You can move to the Eastside! This is the core reason why foreign nationals address these industries with their state sponsored subsidies. The only person who I can recall who dared defy the status quo was Lee Iacocca. He would have made a great president, but prejudice and the powers-to-be put an end to that before it got off the ground. However, I must include this great piece back in time when Lee stood up for what is right.

Picture a fifth grade class. Today, a new student transfers to the school. The teacher introduces the little girl to the class. She sits in the front seat. Class, I would like you to meet a new student to our class. Her name is Toki Yashima and she is from Japan. I hear that she speaks perfect English, so do not be afraid to talk to her in recess.
Now, let us review what we have been studying for the past two weeks in American history. Who can tell me who said, "Give me liberty or give me death?" The class is silent. The teacher implores someone to answer. No one raises their hand. Finally, little Toki raises her hand. The teacher points to her. She rises and say, "Patrick Henry, 1775." The teacher gives a short clap and acknowledges that she is correct. She moves to another question. Who said, :I regret that I only have one life to give for my country?" Again, no one answers. The teacher says, "C'mon! We have been over this countless times. Anyone?" After another silent pause, Toki raises her hand. Reluctantly, the teacher points to her. Again, she rises, says, "Nathan Hale, 1776." The teacher says, "Thank you, Toki. Class, you should be very ashamed of yourselves. This little girl comes all the way from Japan and she knows more about our history than you." She turns to the blackboard. A voice in the back yells, "The hell with the Japanese!" The teacher turns, asks, :Who said that?" She runs up the aisle where the voice came. She studies the kids faces when another voice from the opposite of the room says, Lee Iacocca, 1982."    
I love that.

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