If Your Premise is Wrong?

 - I no longer listen to what people say, I just watch what they do.

- Winston Churchill

Here, at Evolution, we are followers to those words of wisdom. President Biden has spent the past few weeks undoing by Executive Order what President Trump signed during his administration. Now, the real work must begin. His own party is pushing him to sign another executive order. It is to forgive $50,000 in student debt. We are vehemently opposed to this. If Biden forgives a debt amount, I want that same amount and every citizen who didn't take a school loan, as a check. Guess what? I won't be paying it back! 

Continuing, can Biden get any legislation passed to which is the real laws of the land? Already, his stimulus package has been pushed back to the end of February. If I was you, I would not count that check until it is in your hand and you knew how much you were getting.

What did you expect?

Biden chose for his cabinet, old cronies and old bureaucrats. How can you get new thinking under this old premise? Last week, Biden announced his foreign policy. It is a return to Obama's. This means military intervention, an escalation with tension with Russia and China can do anything it likes as long as it buys US Treasuries and farm products.

Talking on both sides of the mouth...

Biden said that the US will no longer support Saudi Arabia's conflict in Yemen. Then, he said the US supports Saudi Arabian security. Biden said that the US will continue talks with the Taliban in Afghanistan to end the longest war. Dear Reader, it is not the longest war, but a perpetual war. When someone asked if Biden worried about all the deficits? He was quick to point out that Trump incurred $8 trillion to our deficits. No one in his cabinet mentioned that the trade gap widened to its largest percentage amount, 18% on record deficits of $679 billion for the month of December. This is becoming the norm. Record deficits every month and year.

You, do the math!

Private payrolls added over 6,000 jobs last month and another 779,000 sought unemployment just last week. Then, the government says that unemployment dropped to 6.3%. Go figure?! Members of Biden's cabinet pointed out that the workforce of 142 million saw increased hourly work. 

40 is now 35...

That weekly hourly rise was 35 hours and not 40. By the way, this is the most hours on a weekly scale since 2000. Thirty-five hours is the new normal for full-time employment. With our economy under a serviced orientated environment ( read low wages), how sad is that? 

Market Rallies

The S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 hit new record highs. This says the market could rally even higher. One reason that we, at Evolution overlooked was the addition of Millennials to the market place. This is evident in the high recent volumes within the daily and weekly share count. There are more trades now than in the previous decade. You have to go back to the 1990s for similar share count. This new aspect changes the timeline of our prediction for a market correction. With that said, we stand by our thinking that the fundamental economy is weak. Take for example, a report by CBS on housing. They said that 71% of Americans cannot afford to purchase a home. The US medium price is $286,381. This speaks volumes. It shows a lack of social mobility. It shows poor wages. We can add other reports like how many renters are behind on their rent. The only thing keeping them under a roof is an Executive Order. Poverty is the fastest growing segment in our society. Biden is playing politics. He should be talking how he plans, if he has one, to help Americans rise from low-wages to middle class. He should be talking how he plans to tax the wealthy, the internet and help states, whether blue or red to overcome this virus and start growth again. Nevertheless, the market goes higher and the Beat Goes On...