Dow 50G; Jobs -50G+

 News ----- News ---------- News --------------- News --------------------- News*

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New Records

There are certain numbers that ring. When James Glassman and Kevin Hassett published their book, "Dow 36,000" in 1999, the Dow ended that year at 11,453. The books number had a ring. Last Friday, the final bell for the US stock market closed above 50,115. This is a big ring. I'm sure that someone who seeks a name for himself will seek to publish a work with the Dow at 100,000. Then, I see that Charles Kadlec did just that with the prediction to reach the mark by 2020. He needs to get his eyes checked.

We see the market as very volatile. The earnings season saw the big names spending for data centers and AI. The hopes for a big pay is very far down the road. To us, this means big investment money will lose patience. They will rotate into something more stable until they see some factual results in the data centers and AI. Ted Oakley of Oxbow Advisors agrees with us. He calls this moment a "sobering up phase" by Wall Street. He also adds that the consumer is stretched out. This will hurt big purchases like homes, cars and vacations. This aspect will hit the bottom line to companies in those fields. We add a point that we see every time we go to the grocery store. Food keeps going up in price. Inflation is still around, big time. If you recall in our outlook for the year, we stated the market would continue its rally into mid-February. When you connect the dots of jobs with unemployment, our call looks very good. Before we get into the stats and figures, we remind you what Mark Zandi of Moody's Analytics, "Mass layoffs are the last firewall between recession and no recession." 

We hate to say this, but the US could face higher than 4.4% unemployment and another bout of inflation. Reality points to this double whammy even if the government reports say otherwise.

Related = A Wall St. economist stated that we were in a "hidden recession." He adds that it ended last April. We called it a "Stealth Recession," and we called it three years ago. We also said that the stock market is no longer attached to what or how our economy is doing. The government tries to keep this connection. Market up means the economy is up. Yet, no one can afford the basic breakfast of OJ, eggs, toast and coffee?

Unemployment...

...claims rose to 231,000. I can't wait to to what the BLS says what unemployment rate is? It ticked up last month. It takes 150,000 to move a tick. When you connect the dots of layoffs with this aspect of spending by the big tech names for data centers and AI, it is like a drunken sailor on leave for the first time in a year. Google is set to spend $180 billion. Meta plans call for up to $72 billion and Oracle has already planning to put $50 billion to work. The market hit ORCL from $340 down to $142. We expect the same for chips and high tech. The big indicator, $King Dollar fell, but rebounded. However, it is still below the last support level as it sits at 97 last Friday.

Announced Layoffs

The total number of announced layoffs by employers is 108,435. Here is a small list.

Amazon announce 14,000 and now, adds another 16,000.                                                                          Master Card is dropping 4% of its global force.                                                                                            Charter Communication laying off 1,200.                                                                                                    Target dropping 1,000.                                                                                                                                  Paramount/Skydance (merger talks) is making the book look better. It is losing 1,000 people.                  UPS has two levels. Help is losing 34,000 and staff is losing another 14,000.                                            Novo Nordisk is laying off 9,000 globally.                                                                                                    Hewlett-Packard losing 4,000 hi-tech people. They are not alone.                                                              Meta is cutting 600 high paying tech workers.                                                                                              More coming...Oh yeah, don't forget the 4,200 federal employees and the numbers begin to build. 

Relared = 7/11 is closing 500 stores and Sach's Fifth Avenue is filing for bankruptcy.                                Sad Note: The Pittsburgh Gazette is going to its last print this May after 240 years. Very, very sad for the voice of freedom with our press. 

Try to enjoy the Super Bowl with friends and family. It is our undeclared holiday. Go Niners! Peace.