Market Charts

- The elevator goes up and down. It goes slower going up with stops, but generally, goes down faster.

- DOORMAN

Chart View

Our Doorman in another life could have been a stock market analyst. In a rising market it has price levels that appear like a staircase. They have an expression, "Stocks rise the wall of worry." When the market craters like at present, it goes down like an express elevator. For the month of March the market has shown high volatility, but the trend is down. It has fallen over 4,000 points in the industrials. Year-to-date, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Transports and Industrials are all down. Nasdaq is in correction territory. If it falls another 10%, it will enter bear level. We made this prediction in December with the slight adjustment from mid-February to mid-March. We did not call the war with Iran, but we did mention geopolitical dangers.  

Fibonacci Levels

We are a believer in fibonacci math. Looking at the charts, this is the retracement points to watch. Keep in mind, we also believe in volume. If the indexes fall with no conviction, the market will bounce back. If it falls on stronger volume, the downtrend will continue. Here are the closing prices as of last Friday.

If the Industrials continue to drop, the first stage is a 38.2%. This puts the index to 45,204. Friday's close at 45,166 has already seen it pierced. The next level is 50%. This equates to 43,556. The completion of the progression is 61.8%. The index would see 41,908. We see 42,500. Note: If you consider the index last high, it too is in correction territory.

The S&P 500 has fallen 7% year-to-date. If it reaches the 38.2% retracement that is 6174. Friday's close at 6368 is still a ways off. However, a 50% drop equals 5917 and the full 61.8% is 5660. We see 5700 as a possibility.

Nasdaq has fallen the most. It is in a correction level with Fiday's close at 20,948. The first stage at 38.2% means a price at 20,500. A 50% means 19,409 and a full fibonacci is 18,317. 

Dear Reader, peope forget the transports. They are necessary in Dow Theory. Friday's close at 18,174 is a long way from what we see. We feel the test is 16,500.   

In Addition...

We notice many of the big names are in bear territory or close to it. Here is a sample.

Meta = down 30%.                                                                                                                                      Alphabet = down 18%                                                                                                                                  Microsoft = down 32%                                                                                                                                Tesla = down 24%                                                                                                                                        Nvidia = down 17%.

Many people buy the dip. I would not as the trend is down. A flood swallows all. We took a gamble on EVGO. This is an EV charging station. It has fallen below what was resistance. We will keep it for now. Our gold miners were also caught in the negative draft. Keep the faith! It is in a long term bull cycle. We also believe in cycles. Peace. Have a wonderful Easter.